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RE: What the Bond Market is Telling Us About Assets

in #money7 years ago

thanks @cryptomeeks lots of interesting info in here. to be honest, everything is a bubble, while accurate, is a bit of a cliche. a lot of people say it but the thing is that with economies around the world (US, EU, Japan and China) all growing at the same time (first time since the financial crisis) there's plenty of fundamental support for inflated asset prices. on some metrics we are 1 standard deviation above mean which is not that much. I do, however, agree that asset prices have been inflated by easy monetary policies globally. With Fed on a hiking cycle and the ECB getting read to start tightening policy, there's less and less support for the markets. So if the fundamentals story becomes challenging then we'll have a problem. Plus, if you look at Fed's history, they always hike either too much or too fast. So, while we are due for a quite substantial sell off in equities, real estate, credit, etc., my bet is that it will come in the second half of 2019 when we have synchronized tightening of monetary policies around the world.

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It would make sense for a big sell off to take place when more countries are tightening, but I believe that all central banks are starting this process. And while the everything bubble might be a cliche, the stats don't lie. simply look at the P/E ratio of 147 in the Russell 2000! Look at how just the slightest raise of 0.4% in the US 10-year has effected markets. Like I said in this post, Jay Powell could choose to kick the can down the road, but the credit bubble with deflate eventually.