@happycapital, thanks for cutting through the noise with this insightful analysis! The visuals you've included make understanding the complexities of the GDP growth rate and Fed policy so much easier. Your point about the potential disconnect between a negative Q2 GDP and the market's September rate cut expectation is spot-on and definitely worth discussing.

I'm curious, what indicators besides the GDP are you watching to gauge the Fed's next move? Do you think inflation data will outweigh growth concerns, potentially delaying the cut even further? Let's hear your predictions and maybe even a wild guess for the exact basis point cut when it finally happens! Great post – keep the macro insights coming!