The U.S. Unemployment rate will be released within a couple of hours.
I presume it will be more than 4.0%. But, it looks like the Fed won't cut the Federal Funds Rate.
The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 recorded -. The U.S. GDP growth rate (Preliminary Q2) will be released this July. If it records consecutively -, the Fed should cut the rate at least this July.
Nevertheless, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, people are expecting the next rate cut in Sep 🥲 It's boring.. 😓
@happycapital, thanks for cutting through the noise with this insightful analysis! The visuals you've included make understanding the complexities of the GDP growth rate and Fed policy so much easier. Your point about the potential disconnect between a negative Q2 GDP and the market's September rate cut expectation is spot-on and definitely worth discussing.
I'm curious, what indicators besides the GDP are you watching to gauge the Fed's next move? Do you think inflation data will outweigh growth concerns, potentially delaying the cut even further? Let's hear your predictions and maybe even a wild guess for the exact basis point cut when it finally happens! Great post – keep the macro insights coming!
Quite a well articulated review and more grease to your elbow..