Bubble or S-Curve

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

Last year it was easy for me to predict where bitcoin was going. It was obvious to me that bitcoin was going to reach the high of the previous bubble, break out and form a new run towards what I thought was simply going to be another bubble.

Generally this is exactly what happened and many will tell us that we are in a bubble right now. And there are many indicator that point to this. The conclusion would be that we will go parabolic and then likely crash and go into a bear market for a while before climbing again.

What if this time is different

However this bubble is weird in many ways. For once why has it been so slow. And what I mean with that is why have we not gone parabolic yet?

Every other bitcoin bubble has been much faster and concluded within months. This bubble has been going on since summer of 2015.

This thing is just getting started

The interesting part however is that if we look at the log chart as well as fundamental metric we are just getting started. There price is far away from going vertical.

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 2.22.44 PM.png

All that said I think it is totally possible that we are currently in a bitcoin bubble. If so I would expect this one to go towards 100-150k as it will simply take that much price action for the price to do a parabolic rise. The thing is this could happen within the next three months.

What if this is the S-Curve

What if these bubbles we had until 2013 were just foreplay and now we are experiencing the S-Curve at work. Most key technologies grow in S-curves. Check out this article for details: https://medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-price-theory-2eed48ecf7da

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 2.34.33 PM.png

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies could be going into the fast growth part of the S-curve. I have layed a curve over the existing price and added another one that may predict how the S-curve could look like in purple.

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 2.11.42 PM.png

I have added the average growth line in green to the chart. This line interestingly predicts bitcoin to reach 1M in roughly 3 years. The purple curve would accelerate even faster.

Overall I am assuming that bitcoin will trade anywhere between $1 to $20 million in todays dollars as my guess.
As an examples if we assume that there is about 200T in global money and 15M bitcoins in circulation (assuming 4-5m are lost) a fair price of bitcoin would be 13M.

Hence the end of the purple curve end just below 13M. If we wanted to be a bit more conservative one could have the curve end lower and draw it out a bit longer.

But maybe there is a little less money or maybe bitcoin will only capture a small part of it. What if there is closer to 600T in global asset etc. What if we only had 70T in global money?

Below is the S-curve assuming

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 2.46.21 PM.png

To me this looks a bit less realistic, given how the price action has moved previously

So maybe what really has changed after 2013 is that we are now getting enough adoption to really start going into the growth phase of the S-Curve.

This I think would lead to absolutely bull case for bitcoin. It would make us see million dollar bitcoins when babies born today are starting to walk. In 2-3 years.

What if McAffee is right

John McAffee predicts that bitcoin will reach 1M in about 3 years. He talks about a model he has.
Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 2.37.44 PM.png

What if he is right.

Exponential growth is crazy and always underestimated by humans. While this is the utter most bull case I think it is important not to discard it and instead accept it as one of the possible outcomes.

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Your reasoning is not so bad. I compose a new way of using moving averages as equipotential lines on price charts. Here is a result:

b017.png

On this logarithmic scale chart equipotential lines are in the direction of strong uptrend, so viewed from 1 week period scale this is already impressive. This strong uptrend indicated by eq. lines have still great momentum and ranging market of the last month is just an intermecco of continues upwards movement of Bitcoin price.

In the moment only the right entry point have to be predicted for traders to entry.

My last analysis: #25.

p.s. It will be more analysis! My work of past few months to be shared with All Steemians please resteem and let it be of great use TFDSRE: #1, #2, #3.
I 'm grateful for all your support to me!

I like the post - it gives a good perspective on an alternative scenario to a bubble which is worth thinking about.

What I think is missing for the user adoption S-curve is more/significant economy relying on bitcoin. This would stabilize also the prize and reduce volatility.

I think a lot of indicators pointing towards a "bubble". The question is can economy adopt so fast that the price is undermined with fundamentals before the bubble bursts. My guess is - that won't work because as long as we are in a bubble the price will be so volatile that main stream economy won't adapt.

So my guess is - first speculative bubble needs to burst before we can go into main stream adoption. But of course I could be wrong.

yes i agree with your compliments .
ithink you are not wrong. you write well

A lot of smart people are talking about $100,000 bitcoin this year. With another 12% of the population looking to come onboard, it is entirely possible - your chart work shows it.

12% would be insane. But givrn the hype it seems possible! Thx for your continous support!

You’re welcome! I enjoy your work.

All that said I think it is totally possible that we are currently in a bitcoin bubble. I would expect this one however to go towards 100k as it will simply take that much price action for the price to do a parabolic rise. The thing is this could happen within the next three months.

Eventually yes, BTC will reach 100K. But in 3 months....i'm a bit skeptical about that to be honest. But if it does happen, what will that mean for the crypto market in general!!! Exciting year 2018!! There will so much uncertainty and so much news will be floating around!! Key will be for us to make sure we take our information from reliable sources and not just buy into or sell out of panic!!

If the price would grow slowly that would be ideal, but it looks to me like it is accelerating.

We will know very shoetly and i will adjust my outlook.

Yes, let's wait and see where the market is headed!!

Personally I love buying into panic! lol I know what you mean though. I love when the market is panicking and a solid coin's price drops a lot because cryptos with really solid futures always recover!

Haha absolutely!!

Just like Ripple these days:)

Great post! Thanks for sharing!

Glad to see you have made it to steem!

Bitcoin still has a lot of potential even if a lot of people don’t see it that way and along with the other currencies that have rocketed out of no where . I think 2018 will bring a lot of potential for many currencies . I can’t believe ETH itself is past $1200, and LTC was just over $300 2 weeks ago, and who can forget Steem

Steem will probably rise a lot and then everyone on Steemit will wonder why we didn't buy more into it when we knew about its potential.

Yes so crazy!!

very nice analysis...but i think that.. alt coins will overtake bitcoin in future ..

Definitely a possibility

Realistic analysis ! Your S-curve analysis and McAfee's both prediction are expecting high exponential growth ! Thank you so much for your efforts !

Great analysis and charts! I'd say Crypto Currencies in general are in a S-curve formation without any doubt looking at all the data. Resteemed!

I am not all that great at cryptographic money so it is constantly useful for me to peruse guidance from a superior experienced individual, thank you for your post @knircky and I wish you an awesome day