Here is how voting intention has changed in the UK

The following graphic shows how different groups in the UK voted in the Dec 2019 general election, July 2024 general election, and vting intention in Feb 2025:

sourcehttps://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1888630630671356013/photo/1

In order for Tories to win the next election, they need a coalition of Established Liberals and Backbone Conservatives.