TSMC: The Battle to Defend the Wafer Throne Amidst the AI Frenzy
I. Technical Analysis: Bull-Bear Game After New Highs
Key Price Structure
Historical High Breakout and Pullback: After hitting a record high in early August, TSMC's ADR entered a period of consolidation, exhibiting a triangular convergence pattern of lower highs and higher lows, reflecting a short-term divergence between bulls and bears following the realization of the positive impact of tariff exemptions.
Institutional Holdings: The proportion of major shareholders holding more than 400 shares remains stable at around 89%, while retail holdings continue to decline, demonstrating that long-term investors' confidence in the company's technological moat remains unshaken by fluctuations.
Analysis of Volume and Price Signals
Breakthroughs Require Volume Verification: If the stock price maintains its previous high with strong volume, a new trend is expected. Conversely, if it falls below the short-term moving average support, it may retrace to the platform low to seek support.
ADR Premium Risks: The price differential between US ADRs and the current price of the Taiwan stock market has reached a 16-year high. Liquidity restrictions may amplify volatility, so be wary of short-term pullbacks caused by arbitrage funds.
⚙️ II. Fundamentals: AI Demand Driven by Capacity Competition
Growth Engine: The "Perpetual Motion Machine" Effect of AI Chips
Advanced Process Monopoly: Capacity utilization below 3nm remains fully utilized, with orders for AI chips such as NVIDIA's GB200 series and AMD's MI350X scheduled until 2026. CoWoS advanced packaging capacity utilization exceeds 95%, becoming a core pillar of revenue growth.
Sovereign AI: Countries in Europe and the Middle East are accelerating the deployment of independent AI computing infrastructure, driving a surge in demand for "sovereign AI," with TSMC becoming a key beneficiary.
Overseas Expansion: The Double-Edged Sword of Tariff Exemptions
US Factory "Get Out of the Dead": The Arizona wafer fab has been granted tariff exemptions, but the construction costs of the third fab and the shortage of local talent (over half of the employees are Taiwanese expatriates) may erode short-term gross profit margins.
Technology Confidentiality Risk: The 2nm process technology leak case has become a hot topic. If the board of directors fails to clarify the control plan, customer trust in technology security may be shaken.
⚠️ III. Risk Warning: Three Gray Rhino Events
Tariff exemption details are unclear.
The US requires "substantial capacity transfer" for exemptions. If the Arizona plant's mass production schedule is delayed or the domestic procurement ratio does not meet the target, there is still the risk of policy reversal.
Concerns about customer concentration
The top three customers (Nvidia, Apple, and Intel) contribute over 50% of revenue. If the consumer electronics recovery falls short of expectations or Intel's outsourcing strategy changes, revenue could be revised downward.
Technology iteration costs
2nm mass production requires capital expenditures in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and Samsung's yield rate gap has narrowed to within 20 percentage points, potentially challenging long-term pricing power.
💼 IV. Institutional Trends: Smart Money's Offensive and Defensive Strategies
Subject, Behavioral Characteristics, and Intention Interpretation
Long-term capital: Holdings >400 shares remain stable at 89%, betting on the irreplaceable nature of AI chip foundry.
Hedge funds' ADR option call positions surge, betting on valuation recovery after tariff exemptions.
Industrial capital: Apple and Nvidia make additional advance payments to lock in advanced process capacity to counter competition.
💎 V. Second-Hand Market Forecast and Key Observations
▶ Optimistic Scenario (50% probability)
Trigger Conditions:
Q3 revenue growth exceeds 5% quarter-over-quarter, with full-year growth revised upward to 30%;
Arizona plant's mass production progress exceeds expectations, receiving "full exemption" certification from the US Department of Commerce.
Stock Price Path: A major uptrend will begin after breaking through the previous high, with the valuation premium approaching 30x PE.
▶ Cautious Scenario (40% probability)
Trigger Conditions:
Consumer electronics inventory adjustments are delayed until the end of the year, hindering the recovery of non-AI businesses;
The development of technology leaks triggers concerns about customer order transfers. Stock Price Path: Maintain high volatility, awaiting verification of incremental demand in 2026.
▶ Pessimistic Scenario (10% probability)
Trigger Conditions:
The US demands an additional investment of $200 billion (current plan: $165 billion);
Samsung achieves a breakthrough in 2nm yield and secures orders from major customers. Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool, particularly prominent in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. It allows for more information, eliminating the need for multiple platforms, making it extremely convenient and practical.
Stock Price Path: A deep correction to the platform level at the beginning of the year.
Ultimate Watchlist: Biya remains very useful.
August 11-12 Board of Directors: Response plan for the technology leak case and update on US factory progress;
Q3 Investor Relations Meeting Guidance: 2026 wafer pricing strategy and share of sovereign AI orders;
Nvidia GB200 delivery data: Verifying the sustainability of AI chip demand.
Core Concept: TSMC has transformed from a "cyclical stock" to an "AI infrastructure stock," and short-term fluctuations will not alter its alpha properties driven by technological generation gaps. Investors need to strike a balance between the costs of capacity expansion and the benefits of booming demand, closely monitoring the aforementioned signals to identify trend inflection points.
(This analysis is based on public market data and does not constitute investment advice.)