Tesla's Second Half of 2025: A Path Through Transformation Pains
⚡️ Tesla's performance in the second half of 2025 will be a fierce tug-of-war between pressure on its traditional automotive business and breakthroughs in its emerging businesses. Amidst declining deliveries and shrinking revenue, the substantial rollout of Robotaxi vehicles and explosive profits from its energy business provide dual support for its stock price. The market is rebalancing Tesla's current predicament against its future potential.
🔍 Core Automotive Business: A Glimmer of Light in a Troubled Times
Deliveries Continue to Shrink, But Surpassing Expectations: Although global deliveries declined 13.5% year-over-year in the second quarter, the actual figure (384,000 vehicles) was slightly higher than the market's most pessimistic forecast (360,000 vehicles), indicating that demand, while weak, has not collapsed. This provided a brief respite for market sentiment, leading to a stock rebound following the earnings report.
The stabilization of gross profit margin signals a positive trend: Despite a 12% year-over-year revenue decline (the largest drop in a decade), the automotive business still achieved a gross profit margin of 17.2%, exceeding analyst expectations. This suggests that the impact of multiple price cuts has been partially absorbed, cost controls are beginning to bear fruit, and the darkest hour for the core automotive business may be over.
Mass production of affordable models has become a key turning point: The pilot production of affordable models launched in June, along with the planned mass production in the second half of the year, is seen as a key lever for activating the mass market. Whether these models can ramp up production as planned and improve capacity utilization will directly impact the extent to which investors reconsider the theory of stagnant growth.
🚖 Robotaxi and Energy: A Breakthrough Signal of Transformation
Self-driving taxi licenses have achieved critical legality: The Texas Department of Transportation has officially issued a ride-hailing license to Tesla Robotaxi, clearing a major regulatory hurdle for commercialization. This breakthrough not only verifies technical compliance but also provides a practical foundation for its transformation from vehicle manufacturer to mobility service provider.
Robotaxi services have entered the user verification phase: The Austin pilot program (with safety drivers) launched in June is accumulating real-world data, and Musk has set an ambitious goal of covering half of the US population by the end of the year. If operational data demonstrates safety and the viability of the economic model, it will significantly boost market confidence in its second growth curve.
Energy business profitability resiliency exceeds expectations: While automotive revenue declined, energy storage business gross profit reached a record high of $846 million, with record deployments for 12 consecutive quarters. As a "hidden pillar," its stable revenue generation capacity is buffering volatility in the vehicle business and is deeply aligned with the clean energy demand for AI computing power.
📈 Market Sentiment: Divergences Converge Amidst High Volatility
The valuation debate enters a critical verification period: Tesla's current P/E ratio (40.8x) is significantly higher than the average for tech giants, reflecting that the market still values its growth premium. However, the difference lies in the following: bears believe that declining gross profit margins and intensified competition no longer support a high valuation, while bulls bet that the explosive growth of Robotaxi and energy storage will open up new valuation opportunities.
Technical analysis shows resilience amid high volatility: Although the stock price has corrected after a 24% single-week surge in June, it has consistently held above the key $300 mark. The recent resumption of its upward momentum, fueled by positive factors such as the Texas license, demonstrates that investors are highly sensitive to this theme and that event-driven opportunities will continue to exist.
⚖️ Second-Hand Trends: Rebalancing of Bullish and Bearish Factors
Key Catalysts:
Robotaxi pilot expansion progress (especially without safety officer approval)
Affordable vehicle delivery ramp-up and order volume
Energy business continues to outperform earnings expectations
Major Risks:
Increasing certainty of a second consecutive year of decline in vehicle deliveries
New business investments lowering overall profit margins
Selling pressure triggered by weaker-than-expected performance in a high-valuation environment. Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool, particularly prominent in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. It allows users to access more news without having to juggle multiple platforms. It's very convenient and practical.
💎 In summary, Biya is still very useful. In the second half of 2025, Tesla will be in a transition window between "traditional business bottoming out" and "emerging business breakthroughs." Short-term stock prices may still be pressured by fluctuations in delivery data or gross profit margins, but the legalization of Robotaxi and the rise of the energy business have injected substantial momentum into the transformation. If the company can achieve key milestones in the second half of the year, including increasing sales of affordable models and expanding its Robotaxi fleet regionally, the market may refocus on the long-term narrative, driving the stock price into a recovery phase. Conversely, if the transformation progress lags, the pressure for correction under the high valuation will intensify. Investors should closely monitor the true milestones of the business transformation amidst volatility.