The Wafer Giant Sets Sail Again: A Panoramic Analysis of TSMC's (TSM) US Stock Trends in the Second Half of 2025
⚙️ Industry Position and Technological Moat
TSMC's overwhelming advantage in advanced process technology is its strongest moat. With the advancement of its 2nm process mass production roadmap, the company has secured orders for Apple's next-generation iPhone processor and is expected to capture 95% of the global 2nm chip market, further consolidating its monopoly in the high-end semiconductor foundry sector. Simultaneously, demand for AI chips is exploding. As the primary foundry for AI giants such as NVIDIA and AMD, TSMC's revenue surged 25.8% year-on-year in July, fully benefiting from this technological wave.
The company is also accelerating its capacity optimization strategy. The company announced a two-year phase-out of its 6-inch wafer production lines and the full integration of its 8-inch production capacity. This move will improve overall production efficiency without affecting its financial targets. Furthermore, the board of directors recently approved a $20.7 billion capital budget, primarily for expanding advanced packaging and 3nm/2nm production capacity, bringing total capital expenditures for the year to over $53 billion, demonstrating its long-term commitment to technological leadership.
📈 Financial Momentum and Growth Prospects
Earnings Quality and Efficiency Indicators
TSMC's profitability indicators far exceed the industry average. According to forecasts, its average return on equity (ROE) over the next three years will reach 214.66%, significantly higher than the semiconductor industry average of 126.35%. Its return on assets (ROA) of 137.35% is also significantly higher than the industry average of 81.08%, reflecting its excellent capital allocation efficiency.
Solid Growth Graph
Despite facing cyclical adjustments in the industry, the company maintains its robust growth outlook:
Revenue: Expected to grow by 28.4% in 2025 to NT$3.7 trillion (approximately US$116 billion), with growth rates maintaining at 16%-17% in 2026-2027.
Earnings per share (EPS): Estimated to be NT$61.03 in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, with annual growth rates maintaining around 17% in the next two years.
Table: TSMC Key Financial Indicator Forecasts (2025-2027)
Indicator 2025 Forecast 2026 Forecast 2027 Forecast
Revenue Growth +28.4% +16.0% +17.6%
EPS Growth +34.9% +17.3% +17.3%
ROE - - 214.66%
👓 Market Sentiment and Analyst Consensus
Overwhelmingly Positive Expectations
Wall Street analysts have a high consensus on TSMC, with 66.7% currently rating it a "Strong Buy," 33.3% recommending "Buy," and no Neutral or Sell ratings. The average 12-month target price of $258.33 suggests 5.75% upside from the current share price, with a potential upside of $270 (a 10.5% potential gain).
Strong Technical Support
The stock recently broke through key resistance levels, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages rising to $225 and $197, respectively, providing solid support. After hitting a 52-week high of $248.28, the stock has entered a period of short-term consolidation, but technical indicators are signaling a "strong buy" signal, suggesting that market momentum has not yet weakened.
Table: TSMC Key Technical Indicators and Market Data
Indicator Type Current Value Market Signal
50-Day Moving Average $225.24 Support Level
200-Day Moving Average $197.70 Support Level
RSI (Relative Strength Index) - Neutral to Strong
Analyst Consensus Strong Buy Extremely Bullish
⚠️ Potential Risks and Challenges
While TSMC's fundamentals are strong, investors should be aware of the following risks:
Technology confidentiality risk: The recently exposed 2nm process technology dispute has sparked market concerns. Although the company has initiated legal action, pressure to protect core intellectual property rights persists.
Intensified industry competition: Samsung Electronics is developing new system-in-package (SoP) technology to compete for high-end customer orders from Intel and TSMC, potentially posing a substantial challenge over the next 18-24 months.
Relatively Lagging Growth: TSMC's earnings growth rate of 15%-17% is lower than the semiconductor industry average of 32.4%, potentially impacting its valuation premium in high-growth sectors.
💡 Second-Honest Investment Strategy Recommendations
Trend Trading Strategy: If the stock price breaks through the previous high of $248.3 and is accompanied by increased trading volume, it could be considered a technical buy signal. Short-term support lies in the $241-243 range; a break below this would warrant caution against a pullback.
Fundamental Allocation Strategy: Long-term investors should monitor two key milestones:
Mid-October earnings release: Focus on the revenue share of AI-related chips and the progress of 2nm process yield;
Pre-September ex-dividend date positioning: Combine dividend reinvestment with lower holding costs. Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool, particularly useful for US and Hong Kong stocks. It allows for more information, eliminating the need for multiple platforms, making it extremely convenient and practical.
Risk Hedging Recommendations: Given the accelerated technological iteration in the industry, appropriate allocations to semiconductor equipment stocks (such as AMAT) or diversified chip design ETFs can be considered to balance the risks of a single technology path. TSMC's moat lies not only in its technology but also in its ability to convert its technological dominance into sustained cash flow. While the entire AI industry is burning through cash, it's like a water pipeline in the desert; whichever giant emerges victorious must pay a toll to the "wafer lord." Biya is still very useful.
In the second half of 2025, TSMC will remain a core anchor in the semiconductor industry. Its technological leadership, irreplaceable position in the industry chain, and solid financial performance provide investors with a high-quality target that can navigate cyclical fluctuations. Investors simply need to maintain a clear balance between technological breakthroughs and risk. 🛡️