🔥 Wafer Wars: The Ultimate Game Between TSMC's AI Engine and the Tariff Storm in the Second Half of 2025
⚡ I. Core Growth Drivers: AI Demand and Technological Barriers
Dominance in AI Chip Foundry: Global AI infrastructure expansion is driving explosive demand for high-end processes. TSMC, with its 3nm/2nm process technology, has cornered orders from leading clients like NVIDIA and AMD. The 2nm process is scheduled for mass production in the second half of the year, boasting a 25%-30% improvement in energy efficiency compared to 3nm, making it a key factor in attracting AI chip iterations.
Resilience in Performance Verified: The interim report shows significant year-over-year revenue and net profit growth, with gross profit margin remaining above 53%, reflecting the pricing power and capacity utilization advantages of advanced processes.
Capex Focused on the Future: Maintaining a capital expenditure plan of US$38 billion to US$42 billion, with 70% allocated to advanced process expansion, paving the way for long-term growth in AI and high-performance computing demand.
⚠️ 2. Short-term Headwinds: The Shadow of Tariffs and Market Sentiment
Tariff Cost Transmission Pressure: The US plans to impose new tariffs on semiconductors. If the tariff rate exceeds expectations, it could increase procurement costs for customers (such as Microsoft and Amazon), indirectly leading to TSMC order cuts and a potential sales decline of up to 12%.
Technology Leaks Impact Confidence: The theft of 2nm process files triggered a nearly 3% single-day stock price plunge. Coupled with a pullback in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, funds are temporarily diverted to financial and cyclical sectors.
Signal of Shrinking Liquidity: Trading volume has shrunk to around $2 billion, reflecting a growing wait-and-see sentiment as institutions await the finalization of tariff details and Q3 earnings guidance.
📊 3. Technical Analysis and Valuation: Key Support and the Dividing Line
Price Range: The stock price is technically oversold in the short term (RSI near 25), with $230 as a key dividing line between bulls and bears. A break below this level could lead to a potential drop to the $215-220 range; a break above the $235-237 resistance level would trigger short-covering. Valuation divergence intensifies:
Bullish logic: AI demand drives long-term earnings growth. Bank of America Securities has a bullish target price of $290, recognizing the resilience of gross margins.
Bearish pressure: The forward P/E ratio is approximately 18x, higher than the historical average during downturns (12-14x). If tariffs drag down earnings expectations, valuations may face compression.
🧩 IV. Competitive Landscape: Technological Generational Differences Build a Moat
Process Leadership: 2nm mass production progress leads Samsung by over 20 percentage points in yield, and 3nm pricing is 20%-25% higher than 5nm. TSMC's "technology premium + capacity binding" strategy secures orders from major customers.
Structural Demand Divergence: Demand for AI/cloud computing chips remains strong (CoWoS packaging capacity utilization exceeds 95%), while consumer electronics and automotive chips are more susceptible to economic cycle disruptions. TSMC's risk resilience is significantly superior to its peers.
Ecosystem Defense Barrier: High gross margins (58.6%) offset exchange rate fluctuations, and strong customer operating system stickiness mitigates the threat of substitution by competitors.
💹 5. Investment Strategy: Defensive Positioning with Technical Catalysts
Short-Term (August-September):
Holders should closely monitor tariff details and the $230 support level, establishing stop-loss orders if prices break below this level. If policy is mild and the stock price stabilizes, hold onto the stock for a rebound.
Short-term traders should primarily wait and see, while aggressive investors can allocate put options to hedge against sector volatility.
Mid-Term (Q4 Peak Season): Biya is a very convenient and user-friendly tool, particularly useful for US and Hong Kong stocks. It allows for more information, eliminating the need for multiple platforms. It's very convenient and practical.
If the stock price falls back to the $215-220 range (corresponding to a moving P/E ratio below 18x), enter a position in batches.
Key Catalysts: 2nm mass production progress exceeds expectations, AI customer orders are revised upward, and the actual impact of tariffs is lower than expected.
💎 Conclusion: A life-or-death struggle between technology generation gaps and policy costs
In the second half of 2025, TSMC stands at the crossroads of "explosive AI demand" and "tariff cost transmission":
Optimistic Scenario: Moderate tariffs + surging AI orders → capacity utilization remains high, and the stock price hits its previous high of $250-260. Biya is still very useful.
Pessimistic Scenario: High tariffs trigger supply chain restructuring + impact of technology leaks → valuation drops to the $200-210 range.
The ultimate winner: Whether 2nm mass production can leverage its energy efficiency advantages to trigger a new wave of AI chip upgrades and offset policy cost pressures will determine the long-term valuation anchor.
Holding Discipline: Maintain a core position (50%-60%), allocate 30% to swing trading in technology-catalyzed events, and use the remainder to hedge against macro fluctuations.