Why Trump Shouldn't Negotiate With Putin On Ukraine

Bakhmut, 2023. State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Last May, Donald Trump bragged on Truth Social that "IF PRESIDENT, I WOULD BE ABLE TO NEGOTIATE AN END TO THIS HORRIBLE AND RAPIDLY ESCALATING WAR WITHIN 24 HOURS" (all-caps styling his).

Last October, Trump upped the claim at an Iowa campaign rally: "I will end the war in Ukraine before I even step foot in the White House again."

The war didn't end prior to January 20. Nor did the war end by January 21.

However, on February 12, Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin finally held what Trump called a "lengthy and highly productive" phone call, after which Trump touted coming negotiations (with a possible assist from China, the Wall Street Journal reports) to end the war.

That's a bad idea for at least three reasons.

One reason is the Russian regime --- like other regimes, and for good reason --- considers the US regime "not agreement capable." Going all the way back to its treaties with Native American tribes and continuing up to the present day, the US has a terrible record on holding up its end of deals and complying with provisions of treaties it signs on to.

Another reason is Putin's attitude toward negotiating with Trump specifically. Pepe Escobar characterizes that attitude as "negotiating with Team Trump is like playing chess with a pigeon: The bird walks all over the chessboard, sh*ts indiscriminately, knocks over pieces, declares victory, then runs away."

The third reason, however, is the biggest: The war in Ukraine is not and never has been the US regime's business.

The war might well have been averted if the US hadn't fomented a coup in Ukraine in 2014, leading to the secessions of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, followed by eight years of US-Russia proxy war in the latter two areas and the US throwing gasoline on the fake fire of Ukraine as a prospective NATO member state.

The following full-on war might well have ended quickly --- with only those seceded areas in Russian hands --- if the US and its NATO lackey s hadn't simultaneously armed/funded the Ukrainian forces, while leaning on Ukraine to refuse further negotiations after the Russian rejection of an early ceasefire draft.

Donald Trump negotiating with Vladimir Putin on behalf of Ukraine can't plausibly produce an agreement which either side --- let alone the Ukrainian side --- considers itself bound by.

The best course for the US, for Ukraine, and arguably for Russia, is for Trump to tell Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelenskyy that US involvement in the war --- arms, funding, and supposed mediation assistance --- is drawing to a close.

That would free Zelenskyy to drive the best deal he can and Putin to declare victory, settle for what he has, and pull Russia's teat out of the Ukraine wringer.