The Encryption Game of 'Expectation' and 'Reality': Trump's Dinner Party—Who's Tugging at the Market's Nerves?
On May 22, 2025, outside the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Virginia, protesters held up signs reading “Crypto Corruption.” Inside, 220 “whales” holding millions of dollars' worth of TRUMP tokens waited for a dinner with the former president. Meanwhile, the TRUMP token price went on a absurd roller-coaster ride: at 5 p.m. Beijing time on the 22nd, the price soared from $14 to $16, only to plunge back to $14 by 4 a.m. on the 23rd, before the dinner even started. Behind this farce, a ultimate game of “market signals” and “real events” is unfolding—does fact shape the market, or is the market fabricating facts?
I. Trump's Dinner Party: A Perfect Experiment of “Expectation Exhaustion”
- The “FOMO Frenzy” on the Eve of the Dinner
Chain data shows that within 48 hours of the dinner announcement, TRUMP token trading volume surged by 300%. The 220 “whales” had an average holding cost of $1.78 million, and the token price once soared by 50%. Ironically, when the dinner began in the U.S. on the evening of the 22nd, the price had already dropped—the market had completed the harvest in the “narrative of expectation.”
Key Logic Chain
Signal propagation > fact occurrence: The price peak appeared during the message diffusion phase (Beijing time on the 22nd), not when the event landed (U.S. time on the evening of the 22nd).
Liquidity trap: Despite TRUMP's daily trading volume exceeding $3.8 billion, the spot depth was less than $5 million, and the market maker could control the market with just $20 million.
- The “Self-Fulfilling Prophecy” of Political Narratives
Trump's team tied token holdings to political resources (such as White House tour rights), essentially securitizing “social capital.” This model relies on continuous hotspots. Once the narrative stalls, the price collapses—as seen on May 23rd when Democratic congress members proposed banning “crypto corruption,” and TRUMP fell again.
II. Remember the ETF Approval? The “Information Arbitrage War” Behind the SEC Website Crash
In 2024, during the ETF craze, delays and congestion occurred. When the SEC website briefly crashed due to the ETF approval news, the market had already priced it in 24 hours in advance through “inside leaks,” and institutions sold off on the news.
Market Rules
Buy on expectation, sell on fact: When the ETF approval probability rose to 90%, the price had already absorbed 80% of the expected increase.
The huge profit of information asymmetry: Bloomberg analysts predicted the approval progress through regulatory documents, while retail investors were trapped in the “FOMO chase - panic sell” cycle.
III. The “Narrative Economics” of the Crypto Market: Who's Creating the Signals?
- The Triad of Market Makers, Media, and Algorithms
Market maker control: 80% of TRUMP tokens are controlled by Trump's team, and unlocking events can precisely create sell pressure.
Media amplifier: Institutions like Cointelegraph and Bloomberg often become tools for price manipulation with their “flash reports,” such as “SEC delays ETF approval” causing panic.
Algorithmic resonance: Social platforms amplify FOMO emotions through recommendation algorithms, creating “trend self-reinforcement.”
- The Shift from “Fact-Driven” to “Signal-Driven”
When market fluctuations no longer depend on real progress but on the “pricing of possibilities,” the signal becomes the fact. For example:
Trump's tweet: A sentence like “The U.S. will become the crypto capital” can drive SOL up by 70% in a day.
Epilogue: The Crypto Market's “Truman Show”
In this virtual theater built by expectations, signals, and algorithms, real events are but a footnote to the narrative. As Trump raises his glass at the dinner, the market has already moved on to the next hotspot—perhaps an SEC tweet or an ambiguous policy draft. The only certainty for investors is uncertainty itself.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and decisions should be made with caution.