China will save the United States?
With the fall of communism in 1982, the bilateral world war ended and the United States became a worldwide leader. In the 1990s, due to the failure of communism in the US economy and rapid growth, there was a lot of enthusiasm in Western countries. Free market economy is thought to be a magic recipe for every problem. This enthusiasm reached a point that Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history in his book "The Last and the Last Man of History", published in 1992. In the context of time, according to liberal values and market orders, which are not under any rules, it will solve all the problems of the world spontaneously. Russia and the former Soviet countries have come into the open market economy, the Communist regime of China, which has implemented the main mix of free market economics and communism.
With the explosion of the dot-dot balloon in 2000, the height of the rise in the 90's was over. In 2000, the stock price of technology fell by a quarter in two years compared to its top level. Over the years, things have been improved and homeowners have started in the new stock market. Because of the unregulated debt system and authoritative financial resources of 2008, the world economy was suddenly cut short by a mortgage crisis in the United States. Especially in Europe, the crisis has created a long-term recession that has exceeded the last few years.
China's economy has been growing since 1978.
Source: Worldbank Data, Visualization by Google
This stable growth has given China the only economic power that can be compared to the world.
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Source: Worldbank Data, Visualization by Google
The above information is not included at the end of the year of 2017. The list below shows the last data for 2017 year, what happens if China continues its successful growth trend.
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If China's economy grows by 6.5% and the United States increases by 2%, then in the second half of the 2020 China can cross the United States according to GDP.
Although compared to the size of China's total economy, the United States achieved an economy of 62%, but America's position was determined to reduce the per capita income. The per capita income figures based on capture power parity, shown below.
There is a threshold in the name of medium-income trap in discussions about whether developing countries can reach developed countries at the same level. The economies of the countries which are based on exports, it becomes difficult to maintain economic growth, such as after a few wages increase. Countries like South Africa and Brazil do not exceed this region the next year after reaching a certain economic size. For example, the situation is legal for Turkey. When evaluated on a dollar basis, the Turkish economy is calculating the per capita income for almost 10 years. I wonder when China will fall into the middle income trap after some time? To test, we have to check the status of China in terms of innovative and advanced technology.
Technologies such as Internet and Blockchain that enable you to send this article makes you American-born. Steimitio United States What does it mean to discuss whether China can pass the United States in some time?
My interest in China increased with my research on advanced technology. I've gotten a map of Google's trends for search terms for artificial intelligence. Intense volume indicates dark blue searches.
The map below shows the search volume for the worldwide word blockchain
Among the indicators, we can measure the performance of a country in terms of advanced technology and the number of patent numbers, published academic articles, and the number of published academic articles.
Among the indicators we can measure the performance of a country in terms of advanced technology and innovation are the number of patents received, the number of published academic articles.
In 2017, for the first time in history China entered the world's top five in terms of the number of patents.
China has passed the United States in the number of academic papers published in 2016. Contrary to 426,000 articles published in China in 2016, 409,000 articles were published in the United States.
PISA results are one of the most important statistics to predict the future performance of a country. China is performing quite well in statistics that compare the performance of 15-year-old students in mathematics, reading and science. According to the results announced in December 2016, Chinese students' scores in mathematics were 531 and American students' scores were 470. In the field of science, Chinese students' scores were 518, while American students' scores were 496. When Singapore and Hong Kong are included in the picture, the picture becomes much more dramatic in favour of China. You can see the details
Can China become the leading country in the world with its successful economic performance? To understand this, we need to look at social indicators as well as economic indicators. The Social Development Index, which measures the capacity of a country to meet the basic needs of its citizens and to provide them an environment in which they can maintain and improve their quality of life, can be a good indicator of this.
China seems to have a lot to do on this issue. In comparison to other developed countries, though, the United States is not at a good point with regard to these social indicators.
Will China be the leading country in the world by overtaking the United States? The gross national income of the United States passed England in 1899. Nearly 50 years after the United States became the leading country in the world. It happened after World War II. Even if China passes the United States in terms of GDP in the second half of the 2020, it seems that the leadership of the United States will continue for a long time.
The emergence of an alternative super power to the United States is good news for the rest of the world. A world order in which leading countries and opposing ideologies compete to convince the peoples of the world is better for us.
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