RE: HUI September 22, 2017 - The Long Retreat Begins for Gold Mining Stocks - The Fall Arrives
Pretty much my thoughts exactly on the current situation cept to say that the difference betwixt your trading method and mine is that I would only consider a long position in either GDX or DUST if either makes a "sizable" move to the downside. GDX would have to trade to at least 22.10...DUST would have to go back close to the low that was just set. You might trade the shorter term swings. That might get tuffer to do in just about any asset class...as volatility is about to increase dramatically imo. And alot of the swings will come for no apparent reason. Even I am missing "decent" trades becuz my technical indicators aren't quite giving "textbook" buy and sell signals before the reversals actually occur. I sure nailed that DUST turn higher though. ..after shorting it a 23.95. Look at the chart. Could it have been done any better?
The answer of course is yes!...I could have actually bought DUST at 22.30 market when I covered the short...but I didn't :-)
When we get volatile markets the swings get harder to track. The major point is that the trend is most likely down, meaning that even if the entries on DUST are not perfect the trend will be your friend. For the next three months most surprises will be to the downside. Probably one of the "safest" trades from now to the end of December is long UUP. Not really much a "trade" more of an average in and wait until sometime in December to exit. Might be a good place to park profits, there and perhaps TMV but that gets tricky because of all seeking shelter from the storm in which case TMF. Yea UUP probably best place to park it, might have to start that as a the program. Of course there might actually be a real opportunity to short the S&P, but how many times can you get burned on that one before just saying no more.