[Steem Monsters] Expected Value of an Alpha Pack (1)
Hey guys! I started this series of daily pack updates a while back but decided to start fresh since I had a few days of missing data. However, it appears I have just missed another whole week of data as I have been quite busy and haven't really had time to be on a computer. So, I have decided to join the data I had previously with the data I have collected in this series, rename the series and start from "1" again, but it will actually have all the data from the previous posts! You may have noticed that Daily is no longer in the title, as I have some gaps in data and I feel it is too ambitious for me to try and post once per day as I have growing commitments outside of Steemit. Hope you guys can understand!
Introduction - why?
Why alpha pack prices you may ask? Well, this to me is the best indicator of a diversified investment in alpha cards index, or Alpha Packs Index (API). The API will be defined as the expected value of an alpha pack. If you'd like to know how that is calculated, feel free to check out this post which explains it
If you've purchased a lot of alpha cards, you'll likely have one or more of each card, or at least a huge variety of them. This index is an average of all cards which will help you decide whether the market is on an uptrend, downtrend, dip, etc.
NOTE: the volume and liquidity of cards is quite low, so for now the API might not be a perfectly accurate index but will still provide a very good estimator, especially when we have more data points.
Some Graphs
Prices used for today's calculations
ASSUMPTIONS
- These prices are the LOWEST PRICE/BCX at the time of writing thus provides a very conservative estimate of your cards' worth, since alpha packs give singles which are worth much more than combined cards.
- Some Gold Foil Legendaries prices may be lower then the market listed prices if not many cards have been listed. For example, IF the cheapest Lightning Dragon listed is $2000, which is not realistic thus biases the data, I might set the price to $700 which is much more realistic.
Below shows the data used of each category with ascending prices.
This brings today's price to: $2.05 (+$0.04)
Price History
- 12/12: $1.99 when Steem was $0.238 and SBD was $0.602
Selling Alpha Steem Monsters Packs
1-10: $3.50
11-25: $3.45
25-50: $3.40
51-100: $3.35
100+: $3.30
Trading Alpha for Beta Steem Monsters Packs
Currently trading 1 alpha pack for 2.5 beta packs, trades only in multiples of 2 alpha packs (for obvious reasons)
It seems like liquidity is a major problem with this measurement now that alphas are done. Wouldn't it make sense to track the current pack edition index?
That makes sense, but this was originally done to track my personal alpha investment, but I thought I'd share it.
I will likely start a beta edition series soon and post alternating ones!