Steem Daily Forecast 18-07-2017 ~ Don't get too excited, yet.

Steemit Daily Stats (Tuesday, July 18th, 2017)

Price

Posts

Daily Payouts (USD)

Macro Events

The headline for today is Bitmain announcing their official support for Segwit2x where by all of their mining pools will begin running Segwit2x as of today.

https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech/status/886839997440995328

This of course is in anticipation of the UASF set to happen on August 1st as proponents of the NYA effectively try to fork Bitcoin.

Some people will believe their implementation is a centralised solution no different from an altcoin. The industry as a whole will breathe a temporary sigh of relief for a temporary solution to Bitcoin's scaling issues. Not that this debate was ever really about scaling.

At it's core, it is more about who is taking the reigns in maintaining the Bitcoin software. Those supporting Bitmain and the NYA are effectively firing the developers responsible for Bitcoin Core.

As mentioned previously, Bitmain who command a "Patented" advantage with their ASICBOOST will seek to retain their "competitive advantage" which by now is clearly a monopolised market with aggressive killing off of other competitors to the mining hardware industry. Bitmain can only retain their advantage if they block core developers from pushing code that disables ASICBOOST and thus reduces their dominance.

STEEM/it stats for the day are encouraging after the exodus that was Sunday across crypto markets. Price, number of posts, and daily payouts are back up after some exhaustive dumping.

Technicals

STEEM

Price of STEEM remains in our consolidation triangle and we have now returned to the channel. We will continue to hug the bottom of the channel until the price compression resolves approaching the August 1st deadline.

Bittrex now takes the lead on price action as Poloniex once again has troubles with their deposits and withdrawals. The price has attempted to break the 51,000 sats resistance level but has currently been met with price rejection.

This signals a continuation of consolidation of whale positions and likely more sideways until a clearer outlook on the overall Bitcoin eco-system.

SBD remains below par value, currently up to 10% below the dollar, it represents an opportunity for those wishing to safely enter the STEEM eco-system with minimal negative carry.

Buying the SBD whilst it is undervalued will mean minimal exposure to the volatility of price should the price of STEEM decide to break down below our support of 45,000 sats. SBD is also a valuable hedge against Bitcoin's USD value but the volume of trades will present a challenge for anyone wishing to convert a larger amount of their Bitcoin holdings into SBD.

Witnesses will seek to correct the undervalued SBD through monetary policy of interest rate adjustment should the asset continue to perform under par though at this point, it is probably unnecessary and the arbitrage gap will soon close as people realise it's true value.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is up 200 dollars on the day after a nullified Sunday dump. Speculators in support of Segwit2x and indeed Bitmain themselves have profited from the FUD they have caused and scooped up Bitcoins from those exiting in fear of potential chain split.

We have failed to break an important key support now turned resistance level marked by the upper yellow line at 2232.
This is a very strong resistance level and will likely stay that way for some time longer as the price consolidates between 1959 and 2232.

I expect BTC price to reach equilibrium at 2029 USD meaning the best risk reward trade is to buy below this figure.

Should the price turn up and break above the 2232 level and hold on the daily, then expect a run to 2400.

On the other hand, should we test the low 1800's, then I fully expect the price to drop through and head towards 1600 for a pause and ultimately 1300's.

All it would take is negative feed back on Segwit2x software which at this point is a very real possibility.

As always be mindful of the Bitcoin price. STEEM/USD is a synthetic pair with no active markets. This is why all of my analysis is conducted with respect to STEEM/BTC. A sharp fall in BTC price will mean a sharper fall in STEEM price in terms of USD.

Steem daily forecast is updated daily. Format is yet to be set in stone. Please upvote follow and resteem

~Bateman