I should not watch crypto-media it makes me REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEe

yeah university is closed (thx corona) time for crypto research and investing moaaar

When your coin is down 14%, it needs 28% gain to get back to +-0. You know, this is why it is better to stay out. Every 20% loss will be a 40% gain. Every 50% loss a 100% gain up its way to brake even. This is the brake-even fallacy. People will never get it.

People are still about hodl (which is partly a good strategy) and dollar cost averaging when you obviously make gigantic opportunity losses. The worst thing is, that many still don´t understand what they hold. Back in Dezember 2019 when I explained game-theoretically that Justin Sun will buy Steemit, not many people cared...they wait until events hit them. With the second order effects of the virus (which is not the same as the disease) it was the same. As my readers know, my role models are Nassim Taleb, Gerd Gigerenzer and other Risk-Experts. I would never, EVER listen to any Crypto-Youtuber or Politician. Idiots make predictions - Intellectuals make rational decisions based on game-theory and probability theory (not on statistics).

This is why I will catch some falling knifes

Here is short part of an interview of Nassim Taleb (a brilliant guy no body listens to) he gave 2 month ago (when the stock market was at a ALL TIME HIGH.

Taleb 2019 December 20th - loves gold, shorts stocks, shorts oil, watches out for crypto

"My Portfolio is negative 120% Stocks (short)
negative 20% Bonds
I love gold
and I´m short oil and will increase my short positions
There will be a huge growth in crypto but I´m not sure how it will affect Bitcoin"

[the Title is BS because Taleb does not predict 🤦‍♂️]

When somebody comes around and sells you a new Steem - then mind my words

they probably have no fucking clue what Steem is

[academic "dPOS not as good as Pow", "Corona not dangerous because more people die from smoking", "a cat is basically a orange, both are made out of cells"]

dPOS = consensus mechanism POS = Oracle !!!!!1111!!!

Look: Delegated Proof-of-Stake is a fully grown consensus mechanism.

Proof-of-Stake (Proof-of-Work is also a Proof-of-Stake) is an >>oracle<< - a method where participants are judged by economic capacity and ideally by skin-in-the-game.

A consensus mechanism is build around such an oracle. It is based on rules like fork-choice rules/longest-chain-rule or the longest-and-heaviest-chain-rule. Proof-of-Stake has ZERO consensus rules.

The Hash-Cash algorithm in Bitcoin is not only used as a Proof-of-Something, it is also a clock. All the things for Bitcoin were in place in ~2002, what prevented Bitcoin was not the "double spend Problem" or the "Byzantine Generals Problem", both where solved problems

It was the Fisher-Lynch-Peterson-Impossibility Theorem. A mathematical proof, that shows that in an open + decentralized = asynchronous network, one cant guarantee byzantine fault consensus.

Now, consensus in distributed computing is not the same as the human term "consensus", it is not a majority decision or a popular opinion. In fact establishing common knowledge in computers-systems is based on non-trivial problems (e.g. the muddy children puzzle).

Now the FLP-Impossibility Problem points out that loosely coupled computers like in Bitcoin, where anyone can join at any time, have a synchronization problem. Blockchain is based on the concept of the time-chain from 1992. But computers don´t have a concept of time... And Blockchain are about the exact order of events. Not in the "+-0.5 seconds way" of the term exact but EXACT. When you take an time service, you trust a central party - who ever controls the time --> controls the order of events. However even atomic clock are not enough to synchronize an open network (Clock problem):

• Network-delay (due to the speed of light and distances)
• even the relativity of time lead to Clock Drift

Nakomoto: Hold my beer...with 99,99% finality after n-rounds consensus is possible when you synchronize the participant via a memoryless-function. Therefore you can circumvent the FLP-Impossibility Problem.

[Academics crying behind their masks]

Bitcoin has something comparable to adaptive suspension in cars. The difficulty of the Hash-puzzle is an entropic interactive adaptive time substitute. When more hashpower goes online --> the difficulty of the hash-puzzle increases. It is always that easy or hard that on average it takes exactly 10 minutes.

[the solution to the hash-puzzle is a very small number you need to find in a huge number space]

Academics: But on average does not sound more exact than a clock

Nakamoto: Look your Rolex is OK over time, but in Bitcoin it only matters that the participants are synchronized once per round. As long as each round every participant faces the same difficulty they are synchronized.

Everyone including me: But when you have more Hash-power you are faster than the others!

[we all gonna make it]

Nakamoto: bruh, look a SHA is a memoryless function. The possibility-space is lets say 2^256 bits of entropy (states = 0 or 1) --> this means even if your the biggest miner out there and your pool tries 10 Trillion possible combinations per computational cycle...you would not make any progress. Every cycle you start from zero, ALL you miners, ALL miners in the universe. 10 or 100 Trillion is nothing compared to a space as big as 2^256.

[academic]

Academics: but it looks not that big. Ok maybe it is bigger than...billions or trillions but...

Nakmoto: pls bruh, dont, just dont force me to...

[still an academic...]

...fine!

1 in over 115 quattuorvigintillion (that’s a 78 digit number) chance of finding a collision.

[#noperv,nosexism, just a huge number]

What you should get

When a miner has more hash-power he/she is NOT faster than others, he/she has simply a higher probability. It will always takes around 10 minutes. When you have 50% of the total hash-power you find (ON AVERAGE) one "block" every second round. Maybe you don´t find any in the next 5 rounds...it is just probabilistic. This is why PER ROUND the hash-cash puzzle is the most exact clock possible. This is where the synchronicity assumption of Bitcoin is based on.

dPOS-BFT which is used in Steem and Eos is a permissioned set of computers. It is synchronized by the fixed amount of validators. So lets not confuse apples and cats and spaceships. A compassion of Bitcoin, Ethereum 2.0, Cardano, Iota and so on will follow. Have a nice day. I need to leave Berlin now, don´t want to be in quarantine with junkies and prostitutes 😒.