The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Steem Charts

in #steem6 years ago

Steemians’ preferred themes are Steemians, Steem and Steemit, I noticed. (I would say: themselves.) Many are sad after the recent price falls of Steem, and some are optimistic because there are, allegedly, worst altcoins than Steem. I better interrupt my series of deadly stocks and toxic commodities to explain you something.

One of the most cited quotes of the world could be this from Winston Churchill, who said:

“I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself” (Goodreads.com)

Beware of false counterfeiters

Other sources are using the verbs “manipulated” or “falsified” instead of “doctored”. Some indicate “it is in fact Nazi propaganda trying to discredit the statesman”. (here). But enough about Churchill, let’s return to Steem.

Sometimes, one chart tells you more than thousand words. Sometimes, charts are trying to fool you. Let’s see some:

The Good:

053 Steem price good.jpg

As you see, Steem price was up a lot, skyrocketing most part of the last 1,5 years. In the last months, it sank a little bit lower, of course, but surely only the general crypto-bear market, you know... It stands still much higher than 18 months ago. Move on, nothing to see here.

The Bad:

053 Steem price bad.jpg

What happened here? Steem price falling? Yes, this is another chart, “year to date”, a standard comparison period. How bad, Steem price fell from 5-6 USD to under 1. “You chose the wrong period, dude, and other altcoins fell much more” – I can imagine what some Steemians will comment here.

Sure, you are right. I only wanted to show how a simple trick, changing the starting point of the chart, can influence seriously the results. That is, may be, the simplest trick of statistical presentations or market analysis, almost kiddy. Much bigger monsters are lurking out there in the woods of internet to show you fake facts.

The Ugly:

Let’s fool around a little more with the same chart, let’s compress it from the side and stretch it downstairs to make it tallish. And change the friendly, soothing green colour of Steem to an alarming, nerve-racking, bloody red:

053 Steem price ugly.jpg

The result is an ugly, annoying Steem price chart, with the line seemingly in free fall. In reality, an 80-90 percent fall in the traditional world would be very alarming, last time it happened with the S&P 500 index after the stock exchange crash in 1929, I think, in the Great Depression. But in the crypro world, it seems to be relatively normal, Bitcoin upreared several times from similar depths.

Absolute highs and lows

Some interesting data: The first daily closing price in the data set of Coinmarketcap.com is 0.87768 USD, from April 18, 2016. Todays, price, by 0.8599, indicates only a slight change in more than two years. Nothing happened in two years? I don’t think so.

The all time low was by 0.07217, means, only seven cents (!), March 12, 2017. Close to the beginning point of our “good graph”. The all time high by 8.03 Dollars, close to the beginning of the “bad” and the ugly graph line. This great day was January 3, 2017.

Like the standards

What to use if this graphs are manipulated? I suggest standard time periods, like 6 months, 1, 2, 3, 5, 10 years, if available. And may be you should compare it with some well known other asset. Steemit acts like other altcoins, underperforming Bitcoin this year. The last graphs at the end show you how much. (Source: Stooq.com); why they use 5 months period instead of 6 months, I don’t know, but it’s their standard.)

Motto of the series Plankton Microwhale School:

People are not interested in you. They are not interested in me. They are interested in themselves – morning, noon and after dinner. (Dale Carnegie: How To Win Friends And Influence People)

053 SteemBTC.3m.Stooq.jpg

053 SteemBTC.5m.Stooq.jpg

053 SteemBTC.12m.Stooq.jpg

053 SteemBTC.MAX.Stooq.jpg

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This is why a lot of people are suspicious of survey results and statistical analysis. Because the truth is, while the actual numbers don't lie, the people presenting the results and analysis can design their presentation in way that is biased, or worse, manipulative. That's why it's best to just learn how to do the analysis yourself. After all, who better to trust, right?

Various multi-billionaires are saying: always DYH, Do Your Homework, before you decide.

I think this is important to note. So many people do a version of their "market analysis" and create graphs that are either really encouraging in a bear market or utterly terrifying. All they are doing is changing a few things and framing the same graph to help drive their point home. It is hard to take a step back and realize that in the moment, so this is a good reminder!

Steemit and its dApps are being used on a daily basis and provide lots of value to many people, the rest of the alts are mostly useless. This is why Steemit will survive and thrive one way or another!

Btw, here is the Alexa rank chart for Dlive.io :-))) https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/dlive.io

dlive.png

It's a bit like the glass is half empty or half full 😄

every chart looks like a BTC chart when you zoom out xD

Great read. Thanks for the detailed information. I resteemed to help further education to steemians. Keep up the good work!

Just like other #cryptocurrencies, steem will always fall and rise again. But, we have to be confident that the price at a point in the future will be stable when it is on a rising level...

we have to be confident

We dont't have to be. We are free.
We have to think about all and question always anything, be sceptical. Do our home work. (DYH)

I got you now... Hard work will definitely pay off... I will start to DMH🔥

Nice post, I love the last two graphs, it actually give a nice perspective of steem performance against Bitcoin.
Nice Post!!

Dear author, I really like your content! You’re writing in a very interesting manner!
I think my last post will also be interesting for you:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@cryptofrau/buddy-platforma-dlya-avtomatizacii-razrabotki
Please, upvote it! I’ve upvoted your in advance.

I'll just build some steem and wait for the price to rise.