STEEM Price Analysis – December 21, 2016
The STEEM price fell through critical support and is now targeting the long-term low.
As I stated in my previous post – and if you’ve been following my analyses for the past few weeks – I’ve mentioned that the low trading volume of STEEM can be problematic for the price action. A few large trades can have a significant impact on prices and trends. Well, yesterday, we had a few large trades that sent the STEEM price straight through both the 1-month uptrend line and established support at ~$0.16.
The uptrend line has been broken and we see that the price has broken from its ~8-day trading range, falling through the ~$0.15 - $0.16 support which had caught it several times over the past month. Once again, we can see the rather large spike in volume, then a return back to the relatively low trading volume. This is typical of a single large trade or a small handful of large trades.
If we put our more technical hats on, we can see that the Fibonacci retracement line at 23.6% has now been breached as well – a line that coincided with our uptrend and mid-term support. Breaking these critical support lines should point the STEEM price to the next line of support. It may catch some support at ~$0.12 - $0.13 (blue line), but it’s not very strong at those prices. More than likely, we should see a push down to the $0.10 range through the rest of the week, which will bring the retracement all the way back to the zero line.
Based on the Poloniex depth chart, buy orders are looking thin until we get to prices near $0.11 and $0.12. Even then, at the lower price, total standing orders are approximately $25,000.
I did say that I expected prices to test the ~$0.15 support line on Tuesday and that we’ll likely see prices test $0.10 by the end of the week if that line did not hold. Well – after several successful defenses of that line, it didn’t hold late on Monday and could not fight its way back to it on Tuesday. That line will now likely become the new resistance for the STEEM price for the near future. For those who have been waiting for the lower prices to stock up on cheap STEEM, you’ll probably get your Christmas wish.
This isn’t the time to panic and leave if you can afford to stay in. It’s possible that we may never see STEEM prices this low. It’s also possible that we may never see STEEM prices as high as they have been in the past month. There are no sure things, but we need to build a foundation if we ever want to give this a chance to succeed – and you can’t build a solid foundation if you’re constantly chipping away at it.
I don’t want to tell anyone what to do with their money and I certainly don’t want to tell you how or when to trade. Just go with your gut and do what makes you the most comfortable. This isn’t the season to stress about your money. (In my opinion, money isn’t worth that much stress in any season.) Look at this as an opportunity and a way to build up some fortitude. If we make it through, we’ll all be much better off – the community/currency will be much stronger for it.
If it does happen to fail...well...at least we had a fun ride, made some friends along the way, and it was a great learning experience. There are worse things in life. But I remain optimistic. We’ll see better days. I can almost guarantee it.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional advisor and this info should not be used for trading. I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, but it would not be prudent to use this for transacting with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex. Analysis is current as of approximately 12:30am EST, December 21st, 2016.
Follow me: @ats-david
Every single person in crypto should be using Steemit versus Reddit, twitter, etc.., I'm actually surprised they aren't. They love censorship.
Ditch that shizz.
Yeah - it amazes me how stubborn some people can be. They want to promote cryptocurrencies, but refuse to join a crypto-based social media site where they can actually earn cryptocurrency. Instead, they bash it on the crappy sites...for free.
LMAO! Exactly.. because they are maximalists. The bitcoin sub-reddits are worse than north korea, its laughable. The crypto big-wigs should lead by example, like @CharlieShrem. Then again, where did he go?
@gregm you got that right about the Bitcoin maximalists. If they keep that up Bitcoin will only remain a niche currency at best. Personally, I just can't see Bitcoin getting past the scaling issue at least for a while. SegWit is has to have 95% to activate and a hard fork seems very unlikely to BU. I would be very surprised if Bitcoin scales in the next year. Only after they have crisis or another alt coin de-thrones Bitcoin will they do anything. That's the way I see it anyway.
You are right. It is a complete mess. Politics, censoring, 7th grade like fighting.
Where did he go? Not sure...but he's powering down.
Just noticed... I am too, but just for the 2 weeks total, and I am not selling any, more liquid Steem.
He posted today.
Yeah - I saw earlier. And I commented.
@ats-david what's your take on SegWit activating? Any chance Bitcoin scales in the next year?
There's really no reason they want once the new features are ready. Having it all feel and look like FB/Reddit is key. Steemit is the most user friendly Crypto so far but its still too hard for Grandma to upload and get going! Bitcoin still feels and looks foreign to people even after 8 years. I don't see that happening with Steemit. The mindset here seems to be "let's grow this thing".
Oh yes some clever marketing as well after the new features go in place. The masses will come if user friendly and they just know about it.
Agreed... Except I find Reddits look and feel is sloppy, but I was only there a short time.
I am excited about the Steemit future.
They are not aware yet.
All I want for Christmas is some more cheap Steem... some more cheap Steem... some more cheap Steem.
Ah, loving the early Christmas present! Had one of my buy orders on Polo get hit today and some others are set around the all-time lows, all primed and waiting. 'Tis the season!
Agreed. A lot of new things coming like Busy, right? Hopefully Steem makes a double bottom around .10 cents and turns back up for good this time!
We've been on a good, sustained run for the past month, but it just fizzled out. It's a slow time of year though, so we should see activity pick up after the new year begins.
Excelent analisis horrible outlook. Wish I had waited to buy....
If/when the market cap hits 1 Billion next year or two anytime will have been a good time to buy.
That's true. We're looking at prices now and comparing them to the $0.25, $0.50, or even the $4 where they had been a few months back. Looking forward, $4 might seem ridiculously cheap in a few years and we may be kicking ourselves for not buying there. You never know.
I see a brutal low of 8 or 9 cents heading into the festive break and then a resurgence back to 10 - 15 cents into January before beginning a gradual uptrend :0)
Great analysis as always. I believe many people are waiting on it to be a dime before buying, unless the short-term outlook looks bleak at the 10 cent mark.
Upvoted and resteemed!
☆☆☆☆☆😎
Great analysis, there is just no buyers out there. It's going to take news or some a big event happening with Steemit.
I'm buying all I can but it is Christmas time. Money is always tight.
We'll get the news once January rolls around. At least that's what most of us are expecting. The first quarter of 2017 should give us a good indication of whether or not things are moving in the right direction.
Indeed... roadmap, busy, etc...
Time to buy some Steem :)