Split Ticket's election forecast updates.

Harris with 57% chance to win the presidency. Republicans with a 79% chance to take the Senate. And Democrats with a 61% chance to win the House.

A normal polling error separates us from a Kamala Harris landslide or a Trump win. I will remind folks that polling bias could and does go either way. We won't know ahead of time. That's the point of these models- to simulate such systemic error.

Harris is favored in the Midwest blue wall and in Nevada. North Carolina is a true toss-up. Arizona and Georgia favor Trump.

In the Senate, Ohio is a toss-up. Democrats' best chances for flips are in Texas and Florida. Republicans are favored to flip Montana.

It is starting to look like the median outcome in the Senate will be Republicans with 51 seats. If Democrats have a good night, they might be able to pull off 50 seats. If Republicans have a good night they could have 52 seats.

In the House, Democrats are slightly favored to retake the majority with 221 seats. The majority of competitive House seats are in California and New York again.