What event would have to happen for the United States to have another Civil War or Revolution?

To be absolutely sure, I feel like a true revolution in the US is a remote possibility even under the most volatile conditions. The American people have over 225 years of experience with respecting democratic traditions and the principle of laws above men, to include a bloody Civil War to look back on if ever in doubt of the consequences of failing to resolve differences peacefully (as well as a bloody Revolution that left America devastated, but that aspect of our fight for freedom does not get taught in schools as much).

In short, Americans vastly prefer to resolve issues at the ballot box rather than with the ammo box.

However, the question does not ask whether a revolution is likely (that’s elsewhere), or whether it would be successful, but what might trigger it. So that’s what I have limited my response to. Although the following scenario might not be probable, I feel it’s the most plausible for what could trigger a revolution in modern America.

It’s 2020, and Americans have had it with the two-Party system. Two decades of “Do Nothing” Congresses fighting with successive Administrations, who have turned increasingly to governance by executive decree rather than by law, have left America with no clear domestic agenda while economic and social pressures mount.

For decades, major polling firms have tracked the plummet of Americans’ attitudes towards and confidence in their government, and in recent years their moods have been at record lows. At times, even “0%” confidence has been within some polls’ margins of error.

Meanwhile, gerrymander-protected Congressmen cushioned by generous campaign donations continue to protect those with access rather than advocate for the nation as a whole. “We’re just responding to the will of our constituents,” they say, even though ever more of them run in decreasingly competitive elections.

The disputes in domestic policy are no longer ideological – it is no longer a matter of parties disagreeing with their vision for America – but truly the advantaged versus the disadvantaged. Wealth inequality has transformed from a topic of conversation to something people confront on a daily basis.

The 2016 election was one of the most uninspiring in most Americans’ memories, with voter turnout at an historic low and enthusiasm gone beyond the Parties' truly faithful.

Two years after the election, faced with still more of the same, the American people decided to make their frustration more apparent, and their resolve channeled into several victories for dark horse, third-party candidates in the 2018 Midterms. It was only a handful of members, but enough to reduce the Republican majority in the House to single-digits. Third-party wins in New England Senate races denied both Parties a majority in the Senate.

Political observers expressed their hopes that the voters’ clear message of frustration with the lack of progress in government would force the parties to be more compromising in their agendas, but it did not come to pass. The president, too, did not back down in the face of the independent victories, and continued to use Congressional paralysis as reason to govern by executive order.

Going into the presidential election, a charismatic, independent candidate who promises to take the fight to the established Parties grows a large following. His campaign is dubbed “Shock Therapy” for a “flat-lining” America.

Despite rising support in the polls over the spring, the Commission on Presidential Debates, controlled by the Democratic and Republican Parties, goes on record as saying that it will exclude the candidate from the debates. This sparks outrage from multiple quarters – not just the candidate’s supporters – and after a demonstration outside the first debate turns violent, the CPD extends the Independent an invitation for the subsequent two debates.

The Independent shines on the national stage, eviscerating the Democratic and Republican contenders, who come across as tired advocates for the status quo, unable to rise above ideology for the good of all. He surges in the polls, money and volunteers flood his campaign, and by October there are projections that he could, against all odds, secure an electoral victory.

Party stalwarts and pundits, however, cast off these projections as wishful thinking, and claim that their internal polls show no signs of a mass defection towards the Independent.

For the remainder of the month, Americans are bombarded with campaign rhetoric that oscillates from combative to panicked, with partisan commentators going well out of their way to demonstrate just why their candidate is all but assured of victory and what that will mean for the country.

November 3, 2020
Voter turnout in 2016 was down dramatically from 2012, as neither Democrats nor Republicans were particularly enthusiastic about their candidate – to say nothing of the independents’ thoughts – but early signs are that this year’s election has surged to 2008’s level, if not higher.

The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time, but it is not until 7 p.m. that results can be announced for certain States. Whereas in elections past the networks are easily able to declare a slew of winners at this hour, the only state they call with certainty is Vermont for the Democratic candidate.

It is not necessarily a cause for alarm, though, the pundits say. Voters should be used to the traditional battlegrounds of Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina being called later in the evening. They gloss over that the reported vote tallies are alarmingly low for the traditional Parties. After some nail-biting, however, Kentucky and West Virginia are sorted into the Republican column soon after 7:30.

When 8 p.m. rolls around, normalcy appears to return to the electoral landscape. The traditional Northeast, Democratic strongholds roll over to the Democrats. Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma are called for the Republicans. Battleground states Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Missouri are too close to call, but as the pundits stated before, this should not be unexpected.

But when a wave of votes comes in from Virginia, the status quo narrative comes to an abrupt end.

The Independent candidate has won the Commonwealth with over 40 percent of the vote. At 8:30, when Arkansas predictably goes for the Republican candidate, North Carolina and Georgia are called for the Independent.

Then Ohio goes.

Then Florida.

Commentators try to remain confident as they make projections about what the rest of the country might do, but it becomes apparent in just a matter of minutes that the electoral math is not looking good for the major Parties. Most concede that the Republican candidate will be unable to get the 270 votes needed to win the election, but surely the Democrats will hold Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, among others, and have a narrow victory.

However, too many States remain in play, and the uncertainty grows the longer they remain uncalled.

Late in the night, the math becomes clear: In order for the Democrats to win the election outright, they must take at least eight of the twelve outstanding States. Their window narrows once it appears that Missouri will be a toss-up between the Independent and the Republican. More results come in, and New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Colorado fall convincingly for the Independent.

There’s no way around the reality of the election’s results anymore. Bewildered pundits declare an event that has not happened in the United States in almost 200 years: Nobody has won a majority of the Electoral Vote, and so the election will have to be decided by the next Congress.

On Wednesday morning, the final results are even less comforting to any American who went to bed hoping the election would be settled definitively.

Americans split their vote almost perfectly three ways, but the Democratic candidate edged out a slight victory in the popular vote: 35.8 percent against the Independent’s 32.3 and the Republican’s 31.9. The Independent candidate, however, appears to have prevailed with the electoral vote, earning 198 votes to the Democrat’s 186 and the Republican’s 154.

Down ticket, a wave of third party candidates have been elected to the House of Representatives, but still nowhere near enough to secure an outright majority. Republicans, still benefiting from the redistricting that followed the 2010 Census, while no longer in the majority, control the most seats.

Only one more third-party candidate is elected to the Senate, but the chamber’s edge is to the Democrats.

Across the country, the Parties mobilize armies of lawyers and volunteers to dispute the election results before the States can certify them. Yet even if the Democratic and Republican Parties won all of the legal contests where there’s the best chance of victory, the Independent still won too many States indisputably for either of them to secure a majority in the Electoral College. It’s obvious to all that the best they can do is weaken the Independent’s position before the matter is taken up by the incoming Congress.

The legal battles continue through December until, as happened 20 years prior, the Supreme Court forces the States still in contest to end their recounts and certify winners so that the incoming Congress can perform its Constitutional duty and elect the next heads of government.

The result of their decision causes Missouri to flip to the Republicans, while New Mexico and Michigan edge to the Democrats. This causes the Independent to fall to second place in the electoral count, to only 3 above the Republicans, with the Democrats climbing to above 200.

A week following the Supreme Court’s decision, the electors of the Electoral College meet in their respective State capitals. Throughout the week, many commentators have used their respective media platforms to urge the Independent’s electors to be faithless, believing that he will have no mandate to lead, and spare the country the agony of having Congress decide the election.

Between having lost the lead in the Electoral College through partisan, acrimonious recounts and a Supreme Court ruling and being bombarded daily by pundits who believe their candidate should simply concede, the tens of millions of Americans who voted for the Independent begin to stitch a narrative together that the Parties are conspiring to nullify the impact of their votes. If anybody should bow out of the election, they say, it should be the Republicans, who placed third in both the electoral and popular votes.

There are faithless electors in late December, but not from the Independent camp – and not many. Only one elector from each of the major Parties casts a vote for the Independent, which is not enough to skew the expected outcome: The Democrat leads, but not enough for victory.

Americans now get a sobering lesson in the little-regarded Twelfth Amendment.

With none of the candidates receiving a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives will be given the task of selecting the President of the United States. The Senate, the Vice President. But whereas each Senator is given the power to vote, in the House, each State Delegation gets a single vote. Moreover, the Twelfth Amendment restricts the selection of Vice President to the candidates who received the two highest numbers of electoral votes, thus eliminating the Republican candidate from consideration. In the House, all three leading presidential candidates are eligible for consideration.

The Independent won the most electoral votes before the recounts, but there are only a handful of senators unaffiliated with the major Parties, and are no third party-dominated Delegations in the House. The Democrat won the greatest share of the popular vote before leading in the Electoral College, and the Democrats have the most Senators; but the Republicans, who lost both the popular and electoral votes, control an outright majority of Delegations in the House.

January 4, 2021
The new Congress convenes and immediately passes a resolution to meet in two days to count the electoral votes. Knowing the electoral situation, the House adopts rules for the counting of ballots that are identical to those passed in 1824, to respect the historic precedent and ensure consistency. After these votes and the recess of Congress, quietly, the Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders meet to discuss a compromise.

The leaders agree that nobody wants to see the Independent candidates secure high office, but the question is how to block this from happening without upending the other Parties.

In the Senate, the Republicans are urged to support the Democratic candidate for Vice President, as theirs is ineligible for consideration anyway. Republican leaders balk at the proposal, but are eventually persuaded to provide enough support for the Democrats to secure a one or two-vote victory – provided there are no Democratic defections.

But what do the Republicans get in return? Democratic support in the House for the selection of the Republican candidate as President? The Democrats reject this. The Republicans trailed too far in the polls for that to be a legitimate possibility.

Then what?

If the Republicans in the House support the selection of the Democrat as President, then the Democrats will, in turn, support the election of the Republican Speaker of the House. In turn, the Vice President will resign – perhaps in exchange for a high profile cabinet position – and the then-President will select the Speaker as the new Vice President – the Speaker then replaced by another Republican. This would give the Republicans control of House leadership and tie-breaking capacity in the Senate which, given its narrow divide, would not be insignificant.

The Republicans are less than convinced and offer no promises.

January 6, 2021
In the days since Congress convened, it appears to be ever more apparent that House Republicans are poised to select their candidate as President. Even though they came last in the election, they retained control of a large majority of State Delegations in the House. While only a few Republicans have gone on record with their express intent to vote for the Republican candidate, others point to the rules laid out in the Constitution and the necessity of honoring the law.

Some Democrats and independents flirt with the possibility of a walkout unless Republicans agree to choose between the leading two candidates, but they simply do not have the numbers to deny the Republicans a Quorum and stall the vote.

Tens of thousands of Americans have descended on Washington and Capitol Hill, demanding that their votes be respected. But as the demonstrators come from all camps, and the pressure on Congress already enormous, the protest does not appear to be a particularly persuasive force for those in the Capitol’s halls.

A few minutes after 1 p.m., the joint session of Congress convenes in the House of Representatives to verify and count the electoral votes for President and Vice President. As expected, the result is

206 for the Democratic candidates
169 for the Independent candidates
163 for the Republican candidates

The joint session concludes, and the Members of Congress return to their respective chambers to select the President and Vice President.

The Senate is first to go, not as a matter of custom – when the Senate was called upon to select the Vice President in 1836, the Presidential contest was not in doubt at the same time – but because it is easier to organize the roll call necessary to elect the Vice President than it is for the House to take the roll of Members, appoint Representatives as State tellers, cast and tabulate its ballots.

By the time the House has confirmed that all 435 voting Members are present, the Senate has, by a larger than expected vote of 78-22, supported the Democratic candidate for Vice President. The news is instantaneously received in the House as its Members mull over their votes.

One by one, Members hand their ballots into the Deans of their Delegations, each of whom then proceeds to quietly tabulate the States’ votes with another Member observing. They then wait for the Clerk to call the roll by State.

As each State is called, the Sergeant-at-Arms carries two boxes to Delegation, wherein are placed two, identical ballots which declare the States’ selection. He carries one box to each side of the Rostrum, and once all boxes have been collected, 100 Members, two from each State, divide equally to tally and verify the vote of the House.

The Republican candidate has prevailed.

The presiding officer struggles to bring order to the Chamber as Democrats and independents loudly protest the result. Democratic leaders corner their Republican counterparts to demand answers, but are stonewalled. What are they going to do? Reveal their conspiracy to the public?

Outside the Capitol, the scene is even more raucous, and several protesters are detained over the next several hours as many attempt to strike out at Members or otherwise make their disapproval known more physically. Many more protesters are hospitalized as fights break out between rival camps.

On the airwaves, commentators and pundits try to play down the shock and anger. “This is how the system works,” they say. “Who should be surprised? Shouldn’t we be relieved that the Constitution has prevailed through this crisis?”

Mere hours after Congress’ selection, the President and Vice President-elect hold a joint press conference in which they pledge to help bridge partisan divides and work for all Americans. “We have heard you,” they say. “Now it’s time to move forward.”

In other days, these arguments might have prevailed, but Americans no longer believe in “the system.” The system has sheltered the advantaged while doing less and less for those trying to get ahead or scrape by. The system is defending its stagnation and the status quo. The system has obliterated tens of millions of votes for new representation and handed the government over to the minority.

Nor do they believe that those in power are capable of bridging partisan divides. They have heard this rhetoric before, and ad nauseum, for far too long and with far too little to show for it to believe it this time.

The Independent candidate, though incensed by him and his running mate being shut out by Congress, tries to appeal to people to respect the rule of law and challenge “the corrupt bargain” in coming elections. He promises to form a stronger Party to secure electoral gains in the years ahead and forever shatter the current system.

Americans, by and large, are not having it. They no longer want to wait for the next election, or the next, to sort things out. Their anger is real, in the moment, and on the surface.

On social media, a passage from America’s most sacred document goes viral:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

It is soon, and then often, accompanied by an amalgamation of quotes from revered Founding Father, Thomas Jefferson:

Every constitution then, and every law, naturally expires at the end of 19 years. If it be enforced longer, it is an act of force, and not of right. . . . It might be indeed if every form of government were so perfectly contrived that the will of the majority could always be obtained fairly and without impediment. But this is true of no form. . . . Various checks are opposed to every legislative proposition. Factions get possession of the public councils. Bribery corrupts them. Personal interests lead them astray from the general interests of their constituents.

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.

January 20, 2021

Seven-hundred thousand people are in the nation’s capital to attend the country’s 58th Inauguration, but it is hard to find the relatively few people who are there to celebrate if not the incoming leaders, the nation’s tradition of peaceful transfer of power. In cities around the country, millions more have gathered in public areas in protest to the incoming administration.

At noon, when the President begins the oath of office, he is almost drowned out by the rise of jeers and curses from the crowd. These persist through his very short address to the agitated masses, in which he seems to be begging them to believe that a new age of unity is at hand that will benefit all Americans.

When he and the Vice President retreat into the Capitol at the conclusion of the ceremony, their security advises that they forego the parade down Pennsylvania Avenue. The number of arrests has already hit triple-digits, and the crowd moving from the Mall to the route threatens to overwhelm the security in place.

They dismiss the recommendation – cowering in the Capitol might only provoke further anger – but they agree to delay the start of the parade, in the hopes people will surrender to the bitter cold and begin to disperse, and to remain in the limousine.

The parade was supposed to begin around 2:30 p.m., but does not commence until an hour and a half later. The strategy of hoping the combination of cold and impending sunset would help disperse the crowds has worked to an extent, but it has meant that the devoted demonstrators still lingering are even more riled up.

As the motorcade makes its way down Pennsylvania Avenue, the protesters’ response is intense, but mostly vocal – at first. Farther down the road, crowds begin to push against the barricades as the motorcade comes in sight, only to be pushed back by police.

Between 9th and 10th Streets, eggs and, in defiance of the cold, shoes are thrown at the presidential limousine, and the motorcade begins to accelerate. But before the President and Vice President can make it to the safety of the White House, a protester becomes the spark that ignites the conflagration.

At 13th Street, the corner of Freedom Plaza, as the barricades fail, a man is able to break through the police line and charges at the presidential limousine, rock in hand. He lets it fly, managing little more than to scratch the limousine’s paint, but in a fraction of a second is tackled by a combination of police and Secret Service.

That alone might not have been enough to enrage the witnessing crowds, but the law enforcement officers, themselves riled by the hours of confrontation they have endured, break discipline and launch into a brief but brutal assault on the president’s assailant. It looks less like the protester is being arrested and more as though he is receiving a summary punishment.

More protesters break free of the barricade in order to rescue their comrade, only to in turn be tackled and assailed. Pushing and shouting gives way to punches, and in minutes Freedom Plaza and the avenue are the site of a melee.

Media outlets try to avoid broadcasting scenes of the violence to reduce the risk of provoking the millions watching at home; but as law enforcement and crowd control units rush down Pennsylvania Avenue to contain the violence, those who had remained after the limousine had passed take advantage of the thinning police lines and spill out onto the parade route.

There’s no hiding the crumbling security situation anymore, and the nation’s capital is plunged into rioting not seen since 1968.

Across the country, most of the crowds dispersed soon after the President was sworn in, but many remain in lasting protest, and are mostly peaceful. Once violence erupts in the capital, however, many local law enforcement agencies attempt to preempt the risk of disorder in their own cities and move in to clear the crowds.

In all cases, their plans backfire. City after city witnesses the emergence of riots, until soon there’s hardly a State untouched by the anger spilling out from a fed-up population.

Road to Revolution
The Inauguration Day Riots are mostly quelled by week’s end, with isolated incidents lingering through to the end of the month. The final toll is comparable to a natural disaster. Dozens have been killed, with thousands more seriously injured. Property damages surpass one billion dollars.

Although the violence has subsided for now, most recognize that Pandora’s Box has been opened. Grievances against the government are spilling out from all quarters, and respect for lawful authority has plummeted. More and more rallies turn violent at the merest hint of a crackdown, which creates a feedback cycle: Law enforcement arrives to the subsequent rally in bigger numbers and with more gear, convincing the protesters that their rights will not be respected, agitating them to violence, provoking a larger response, and so forth.

Eventually, jurisdictions begin denying all demonstration permits in order to ease tensions, but this only sparks a rise in illegal protests and acts of civil disobedience.

Congress, in the meantime, has ground to a halt. Democratic leaders, still chaffed by the Republican rejection of their compromise offer, refuse to support any scrap of the Republican agenda in the House and use an array of tactics to stall business in the Senate. Moreover, they refuse to confirm any of the Republican President's Cabinet nominations without concessions, leaving the whole of government starving for leadership. The handful of third party Representatives and Senators have given up on attempting to bridge the divide, and instead serve as conduits of public anger at the intransigent government.

Meanwhile, down Pennsylvania Avenue in the White House, the President and Vice President often quarrel on the rare occasions where they speak, and the Administration has yet to put forward a clear agenda for moving the country out of its crisis of confidence.

Americans’ largest, collective disapproval of their government comes in April, as a record number individuals “fail” to file tax returns. Recognizing the tax revolt, in a rare act of bipartisanship, Congress first passes a law to extend the filing date to the end of June with no penalties for those who did not file by April 15 – but with increased penalties thereafter.

The June deadline, however, is not met with an increase in tax returns being filed, but a several-million strong protest on the National Mall. It is the first protest since the Inauguration Day Riots that articulate national demands for changes to the government. There are calls for a Constitutional Convention.

Their demands are met with regurgitated rhetoric.

In August, after a summer of news about tax evaders being arrested, redistricting favoring incumbents, and the failure of bipartisanship to make meaningful progress in Congress, the electorate’s anger erupts again as Members of Congress, on recess, duck and dodge at town hall meetings and other public events. Several events turn violent. Eventually, Congressmen stop appearing in public altogether.

When Congress reconvenes in September, there are angry crowds at Capitol Hill to demand why the Congress has failed to act on an array of measures, with bills to approve a Constitutional Convention among them. Physical confrontations are rare at first – the police are quick to isolate and remove troublemakers – but the thin veneer of peace does not last long against the storm of discontent.

On the afternoon of Friday, September 17, as Congress tries to rush through morning business so they can head back to their districts, protesters are successful in surging past the police lines and force their way into the Captiol Building, storming the House Chamber. The Floor is empty, as it usually is during business hours, but their occupation is a major victory in its symbolism and effect.

Energized by the scene of their compatriots in command of the halls of Congress, protesters across the country storm and occupy their State assemblies, forcing legislatures in most States to follow in Congress’ footsteps and hastily adjourn.

The message is clear: Americans no longer support the rules of the status quo, and no amount of rhetoric will be sufficient to placate them. Two centuries after the end of its first revolution, the American people have risen up again to revoke their consent to be governed under the ruling order.

The Second American Revolution has begun.