Libya after Muammar Gaddafi.

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After the death of Dictator Muammar Al-Qadhafi, conflicts between Islamist forces, tribes, ethnic groups and foreign interference have led to a country that has come to have three rival governments, to the most despotic chaos. Going from one of the most opulent countries on the African continent thanks to its vast oilfields, to a complete disaster.  

Citizen protests that began in Tunisia in December 2010 spread to Egypt ruled by Hosni Mubarak in January 2011, slightly a month later arrived in Libya. Peaceful rallies quickly turned into an armed uprising and the country was plunged into a bloody civil war. NATO decided to implement the 1973 UN Security Council Resolution, initiating a bombing plan between March and October 2011 that had a decisive impact on the regime's decline. 

The National Transitional Council (NTC) was an institution created that brought together quite diverse groups that distributed the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime among their interests. In months, it managed to obtain the approval of the international community as an interim Government; after the assassination of Gaddafi on 20 October 2011, its fragility emerged. The non-election of leaders by the people, the omission of a common project, the insufficiency to integrate and disarm local forces and armed groups that had highlighted an action in the revolution in the State security mechanisms, manage to mention these as the key factors that hindered the NTC lead the post-Gaddafi stage. 

•   Elections after Gaddafi: Islam to power. 

In a visible attempt to rectify the situation, on 7 July 2012 the first democratic elections were held in a country that had lived through more than 40 years of dictatorship. The elections aimed to elect 200 deputies who will establish the General Congress of the Nation (GCN). The 62% electoral implication gave victory to the liberal attachment party Alliance of National Forces. However, the Islamist party Justice and Construction would end up governing the GCN due to the support of different independent postulants and the Salafists. After the parliamentary elections, a new government was established in the capital Libya Tripoli, led by the liberal Ali Zeidan where the ministries were distributed between liberals and Islamists.

During this period, the Islamists, excluded in the previous period, achieved a power of great magnitude in the country. For example, the consent in 2013 of a Law of Political Isolation, which harmed the liberal groups, making it impossible to establish public positions to which they had occupied some position during the system of Gaddafi, and the sharia as the only source of law.   

At the time, Prime Minister Zeidan, incapacitated to lead operational troops throughout the country, had to face strong opposition and political isolation from the Muslim Brotherhood (Islamist party Justice and Construction). During a coup d'état plan in which Zeidan was kidnapped for several hours by the Islamist group "Operations Room of the Libyan Revolutionaries", the end in the political game for Zeidan arrived in March 2014 at the moment when a North Korean ship exchanged hydrocarbon extraction directly with the militias that dominated the Gulf of Sidra, which caused him to be stopped later by a US ship. The resulting political crisis led to a motion of censure against Zeidan, together with his defense minister. Abdullah al Thani became prime minister. However, only a month later Al Thani would resign because of threats made against his family and the Islamist Ahmad Mitig accepted power in a controversial vote for some. 

Since then there will be some crucial events, as the return of which will be one of the crucial emblems in the Libyan civil war: General Jalifa Haftar. This personage was Chief of Staff of the Gaddafi regime, after being denounced for treason in the Libyan-Chadian conflict that took place in the years (1978-1987), he is forced to leave for the USA. From where he returned with the intention of establishing a high command in order to direct the military executions of the NTC at the beginning of the rebellions against the dictator.  

After travelling back to the US, General Haftar reappears in the Libyan political context in February 2014 and in a televised speech decided to dissolve the GCN due to the incompetence to lead a country, being hindered by Islamist radicals, as well as the creation of a "presidential committee" that would lead the nation until new elections were held. The response was not long in coming, since the GCN accused him of being a coup plotter and his objectives. General Haftar would discreetly seek the necessary support to carry out three months later, highlighting Mitig as prime minister and ally, the so-called "Operation Dignity" which had the objective of deposing the GCN and defeating the Islamist militias. In this way, Tripoli and Benghazi, which were two cities where the Islamists concentrated a great deal of power, were bombed, and the GCN was harassed. In this new civil war, Haftar's forces, which are called Libya's National Army, had an important popular support, they were helped by the militias of Warshefana, Nafusa, among others.

Due to the events that occurred, there is an unexpected turn of events, in which the Supreme Court declares that the plebiscite procedure of Mitig is illegal, due to the absence of a substitute, the position was taken back to Al Thani at the beginning of June 2014. However, he would have the power for a very short time. A new election will be called for June 25, there being a military operation led by Haftar, the factions would be more distant.

• Second elections: Tripoli and Tobruk dispute legality.      

Participation in the elections was very low due to the fear of armed violence; the elections were aimed at electing the members of the House of Representatives, which is the new legislative power that seeks to replace the GCN which were won by secular factions, highlighting the strong rebound in relation to the 2012 elections of the Islamists. Due to the conflicts between the different groups that were still in Tripoli, the chamber decided to move to the eastern city of Tobruk, where Al Thani would form a new government with the support of the international community. For their part, the Islamists described the 2014 elections as false, not recognising the legality of Al Thani's government, much less the chamber.   

The mandate of the CGN ended on the same day of the electoral elections, was retained as parliament in addition to a government that resulted in Tripoli, governed by the opinion of the Islamist Omar al Hasi called "national salvation".   

In the territory there was total confusion because it had two governments and two parliaments, one in the city of Tobruk and the other in Tripoli, besides this, the first would be the only one recognized internationally, in the internal context the Libyan Supreme Court rendered the 2014 elections useless in the same way, therefore, like the Parliament that emerged from them. The House of Representatives and Al Thani accused the Islamist militias that had the capital to intervene in the determination of the court and from Tobruk the sentence was denied.  

The National Army of Libya, named by them, reflected its defense to the House of Representatives or also called "Parliament of Tobruk", as well as to its Government and has established itself as a guarantor of the security system of this sector of the country. On the other hand, on the Islamist side, as a counterattack to the military maneuver carried out by Haftar, they launch the so-called Libyan Sunrise Operation, which has the sole support of Islamist followers in Tripoli and in the city of Misurata. Added to this, the dispute that took place in the southwest of the nation between the Tubu and Tuareg tribes, which had nothing to do with the conflicts of the two cities, have given a connotation by the factions some benefits: the part of Tripoli has invested and supported the tubus and the components of Haftar, the Tuareg tribe.   

• The establishment of a Government of National Unity.

Due to all the events taking place in Libyan territory, at the end of 2015 the so-called Libyan Political Agreement was signed in Sjirat (Morocco) at the appeal of the UN, in which a Government of National Unity (GNU) would be constituted, led by the pro-Western Fayez al Sarraj, who would also head the Presidential Council as head of state. The ruling provided for the creation of an advisory body based in Tripoli, the so-called Council of State, made up of representatives of the GCN, together with the House of Representatives of Tobruk was considered the absolute legitimate parliament of Libya. In spite of this the great part of the international community would begin to create link with the GNU, in the internal dispute this seemed to begin without any air to arise, since neither tripoli and tobruk validated the agreement.    

Operating from Tunisia, Al Sarraj's government was established in Libya in 2016. From that moment, Al Sarraj pledged to consolidate his condition of power and achieve the sustenance of a very important part of the Misurata militias, of the Special Deterrence Forces and of economic institutions with an important power: the Central Bank and the National Petroleum Corporation. The new Government saw its legality fortified in terms of that year, in the time that, due to six months of attack, is strongly supported by U.S. air forces, resulting in the expulsion of the terrorist organization Dáesh which was in Sirte, a port town of economic importance, since these have the primary terminals for the sale of hydrocarbons in the country.

The supporters of the Sharia "Ansar al Sharia" took advantage of the situation that became anarchic after the fall of Gaddafi, calling themselves a Salafist, anti-democratic and anti-western creed group, where they established and consolidated their power in the town of Benghazi, where in 2012 the U.S. consulate was assaulted and its ambassador assassinated. Dáesh consecrated its establishment in the territory in 2014, specifically in the city of Derna, where it found the support of a good sector of the components of the Ansar. In their bastion and benefiting from the absence of power in the region due to the hostilities between Tobruk and Tripoli, they managed to move to the city of Sirte and remained there from 2015 until the end of 2016, until the moment when the attack led by the GNU obtained the expulsion of the jihadists. This defeat meant a withdrawal of the terrorist organization in the country, however the calculation remains that today there are more than a thousand jihadists being in Libya.     

After the important victory in Sirte of the GUN, it faced an attempted coup d'état by the Tripoli government, led by Jalifa al Ghawil. In March 2017, with a union of militias supporting the GNU, he managed to launch an offensive in which Al Ghawil was wounded and withdrew into exile, which transforms Haftar, linked to the Tobruk government, into Al Sarraj's main opponent in the country. Haftar has achieved results, has achieved significant victories in recent years, being the cause of the weakness of Al Sarraj's government. Some of the achievements are: the seizure of Benghazi, the domination of the main oil structures of the country and its significant triumph over the military base of Al Jufra, adding to it the strengthening of almost total authority in eastern Libya.    

Different meetings have taken place throughout these years between both leaders, but it is not foreseen that the points to be negotiated will be fulfilled in the immediate future. Without the existence of the constitutional framework, the agreed electoral law and the necessary security, as an example of this problem are the attacks perpetrated by militias close to Haftar and by Dáesh against the headquarters of the Electoral Commission, a date on 10 December for the holding of elections in Libya, seems unlikely. 

At the moment, Libya's strongman is Haftar, having control of the main oil infrastructures, with the largest military force operating in the country, does not contemplate an alternative that is different from the use of force to destroy "political Islam" together with the Libyan Dawn militias, almost nullifying a real negotiation with Tripoli. In addition, having a strong help with the support provided by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia in a slightly more discreet way.   

Seven years have passed and Libya's future seems uncertain; the decline of Haftar's health suggests that there is no one with the capacity to add to the group of tribes and militias that maintain their military forces. Faced with this situation, the US President has taken it for granted that there is no interest in Libya other than the fight against terrorism, while the EU is only concerned with safeguarding its borders, a clear example of this being the funding allocated to form coastguards of Libyan origin, so that sub-Saharan immigrants and refugees do not reach European coasts. 

 

 I hope that this article on a rather complex subject will be to your liking. For this space more articles of this type will be published. Kevin Origüen, International Studies, Venezuela.