RE: Orconomist Issue 2 - Pareto & The Whale - Surviving The Dumpening
Interesting article on an interesting point in the steem economy!
I am surprised the price of steem is currently as High as it is! In 90 minutes, the first wave of 8x steem power downs will hit. Everyone knows this. Yet steem has not dropped by much over the last 24 hours; just 7% at this moment. http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/
To me, it seems that the market is making 2 predictions.
Not all of the steem that is powered down will be sold, or at least not rapidly enough to sink the price.
If the price does sink, it is worth holding for the longer term because inflation is now under control and the long term outlook for steem is good.
People have had weeks to think about how to respond to Hard Fork 16. What we have seen, by looking at the one month steem chart, is no major sharp cliffs where the price crashed. There have been buyers for the sellers.
I expect the price to drift downward during the next few weeks, but once we see how this plays out in the short term, I think the long term people will be back to buy, and steem will begin a long steady upward trend.
Hi Kenny,
That's true about the fact that not all powered down SP will be sold immediately.
I think my point of this article was to point out that so far we have seen the price drop when the top 1% power down (and cash out), and stabilise when they don't.
From last week I have seen my vested interests fall less than 2.5% up till today, now it's around 12%, I'm guessing because the dumpening has started.
We'll see what will happen; I just hope it's a gradual decline, because I believe we can come back from that :-)
Cg