2025H2 Outlook: The Battle for the AI Throne

🔮 NVIDIA 2025H2 Outlook: The Battle for the AI Throne
📈 1. Technical Analysis: Bull-Bear Game After Reaching a New High
Price Structure and Momentum Signals
Consolidation at Historical Highs: NVIDIA's stock price entered a converging triangle pattern after reaching a new all-time high, with volatility falling to a year-to-date low, reflecting the divergence between bulls and bears after the realization of short-term positive news.
The Criticality of Volume Changes: A breakout above the previous high must be accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume (over 1.5 times the daily average), otherwise it could easily constitute a false breakout. Conversely, if support from the short-term moving average is lost, the stock may retrace to the platform low for support.
Overbought Risk Warning: Technical indicators suggest the stock price is approaching the overbought zone. Recent share sales by some executives have exacerbated short-term profit-taking pressure.

⚙️ II. Fundamentals: AI Demand Driven and Profit Resilience
Growth Engine: Inference Demand and Sovereign AI
Explosive Inference Computing: Inference models such as DeepSeek-R1 are driving a surge in computing power demand. Customers are deploying nearly 1,000 NVL72 racks weekly. Blackwell architecture capacity utilization remains high, supporting continued high growth in data center revenue.
A New Blue Ocean for Sovereign AI: Countries in the Middle East and Europe are accelerating the development of local AI infrastructure. NVIDIA is entering this market with a full-stack solution (chip + software + network), reducing its reliance on a single customer.
Earnings Quality and Cash Flow Advantages
Gross Margin Moat: Blackwell's mass production is driving gross margins above 70%, with economies of scale offsetting competitive pricing pressure.
Abundant Free Cash Flow: Over $200 billion in free cash flow can be generated over the next two years, supporting R&D investment and share repurchases, providing intrinsic support for the stock price.

⚠️ III. Competitive Landscape: Testing Moats Under Surrounding Attacks
Sources of Challenges, Core Threats, and Nvidia's Response Strategies
Traditional rivals AMD and Intel are accelerating AI chip iteration, releasing new architectures annually (such as Blackwell Ultra) to maintain a technological gap.
Cloud giants Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are developing their own customized AI chips, bundling network and software ecosystems to increase customer switching costs.
Startups like Cerebras specialize in low-power solutions for niche scenarios, locking in the developer community through the CUDA ecosystem.
The Value of Ecosystem Barriers: Nvidia's core advantage has shifted from single-chip performance to a full-stack "hardware-software-network" platform, resulting in significantly higher customer stickiness than its competitors.

💼 IV. Institutional Differences: Valuation Bubble or Growth Premium?
Bull Logic:
✅ High Demand Visibility: Cloud vendors like Microsoft and Meta have pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in data center investments, with Blackwell orders booked until 2026.
✅ Sovereign AI Increment: Trillion-dollar emerging markets are opening a second growth curve. Bearish Concerns:
❌ Valuation Overdraft Risk: Forward P/E ratio remains above the industry average, requiring sustained 70% growth.
❌ Product Iteration Pressure: If Blackwell Ultra is delayed or its performance falls short of expectations, it could trigger a valuation re-rating.
Institutional Consensus: 58 of 66 analysts maintain a "Buy" rating, but target prices vary significantly (ranging from $100 to $250), reflecting differing pricing of execution risk.

📅 V. Second Half Market Forecast: Three Scenarios and Key Milestones
Optimistic Path (45% Probability)
Trigger Conditions: Blackwell Ultra is delivered on schedule and exceeds energy efficiency expectations; sovereign AI contracts for major projects in more than three countries.
Stock Price Drivers: A breakout above previous high initiates a major uptrend, with valuations approaching 40x PE.
Neutral Path (40% Probability)
Characteristics: Blackwell deliveries meet expectations but fail to overcome technical bottlenecks; competition puts slight pressure on gross profit margins.
Market Reaction: Wide range fluctuations at high levels, awaiting the implementation of new scenarios for autonomous driving and robotics in 2026. Pessimistic Path (15% probability): Biya is a very convenient and easy-to-use tool, particularly prominent in the US and Hong Kong stock markets. It allows you to access more news, eliminating the need for multiple platforms. It's very convenient and practical.
Risk Points: Cloud giants' self-developed chip replacement rate jumps; macroeconomic factors suppress enterprise AI spending.
Support Level: A pullback to the year's low, reflecting downward revisions to growth expectations.
🔍 Key Points to Watch
September GTC: Blackwell Ultra chip details and customer deployment progress.
November earnings season: Data center revenue growth and sovereign AI order share. Biya is still very useful.
Sovereign AI agreement implementation: The pace of project signings in Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Core Concept: Nvidia's long-term value is anchored in its position as an "AI infrastructure leader," but short-term fluctuations will depend on its ability to execute on technological iterations and the evolving competitive landscape. Investors should be wary of the mismatch between valuation and growth rate, and dynamically balance risk exposure within the certainty of industry trends.