Estimated 25 percent of Bitcoin users involved with illegal trade

Research suggests that an estimated 25 percent of Bitcoin users, as well as 44 percent of Bitcoin transactions; are associated with illegal trade. This study, published on January 17th, 2018, by researchers associates of The University of Sydney and Stockholm School of Economics, quantified the amount of illegal trade involving bitcoin by analyzing the blockchain using open data from Dark-net forums and exchanges, as well as wallet seizures. The analysis of these factors predicted whether or not a specific address was associated with illegal activity. Findings do, however, conflict with previous studies analyzing the same idea, which suggested that the illegal trade relative to bitcoin was not substantial. Other, more anonymized cryptocurrencies and ‘alt-coins’, are more opaque and harder to predict; however, researchers suggest that these coins are not predominant in the illicit cryptocurrency markets. Various pieces of data related to dark-net site raids obtained the wallets of various users; as well as data which was analyzed using algorithms such as Smart Local Moving (SLM) and Detection Controlled Estimation (DCE). SLM develops a model of nodes and by removing and adding nodes, they see if the overall model is improved; DCE views Bitcoin transactions and creates a probability that the account is being used for illicit purposes. With these analysis methods, the researchers created a list of miners and exchanges. The final estimate returned with a result of 106 million users, 606 million transactions, and around 1.9 trillion US dollars traded. What this all means is a matter of debate; however, as the wallets typically can’t be tracked down to individuals, no substantial arrests can be made as of now.