Difficult to say we're in a recession right now.

This chart tracks the six coincident economic indicators that NBER uses to determine if we are in a recession.

We got updates to real manufacturing and trade industries sales, real personal consumption expenditures, and real personal income excluding current transfer receipts today, so I thought I'd update the chart.

All three increased in the latest monthly data.

In fact 5 of the 6 indicators are increasing month to month, save for industrial production which reached a peak in the previous month. And 5 of the 6 are still above the January 2022 level, save for real manufacturing and trade industries sales.

Quite hard to seriously argue we are in a recession right now when the coincident economic indicators look this healthy.