A correlation chart suggests Dow to crash 90% to a value close to 2000
I looked at the chart of US employment to population.
It appears the fair value of Dow jones should be close to 2000.
During the great depression the stock market crashed 85% from a peak of 5375 to a trough of 770.
(Source: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart)
Possibly the history rhymes with the current environment?
It's possible. But one difference nowadays is that most of the $$ earned by companies on the Dow Jones and S&P 500 make their money outside of the U.S.A, so they take advantage of global growth.
This actually might help these companies if the dollar drops in value heavily in the next several years or so (they receive most of their earnings directly in foreign currency).
There isn't a single country without a bubble. This is a global bubble.
Australia - Housing Bubble
China - Housing Bubble
Canada - Housing Bubble.
UK - Housing Bubble
US - Housing, Auto
India - Housing Bubble
Germany, Japan, US - Bad demo graphics.
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Keep in mind that the global economy is slowly coming out of a period of low to no growth. Valuations may be high right now, but good companies are also making good profits and the US economy is lagging compared to much of the rest of the world, emerging markets in particular. As always, choose your investments wisely.
I just looked at one of the emerging markets - Indonesia, specifically a major company Go-Jek.
Apparently it is good but not profitable.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-01/these-guys-are-destroying-uber-yet-few-westerners-have-ever-heard-them
A comment underneath the article exposes the "profitability" of the company.
There are many such companies (sometimes sponsored by national govt), so I wouldn't put my money there