RE: (VIDEO) Stock Market-Trouble Ahead? Two Dynamics Say Yes. By Gregory Mannarino
Pretty good chart analysis as you "acknowledge" the possibility of a rally in the SPX. Since you would advise shorts to set a stop (SPX 2435) so close to yesterday's SPX closing price of 2428 then it is pretty clear that you would not advise new short positions at this juncture. Greg could "likely" learn alot from you as the Ty Ming of his new long trades were basically buys at teh "exact" top of the market rally. I wouldn't be initiating new shorts either. But there "might be" one more "quick" shorting opportunity if the SPX rallies here, although I doubt I will be playing it. Too close to a buy right now to be initiating new short positions that were anything but 3 day lotto tickets via the weekly SPY put options. My 10 day SPY chart finished the day yesterday with the first leg of a buy signal already established. So as of right now I will be looking to buy the SPY on the very next selloff (but I'd likely buy IWM as IWM has a bigger % upside than the SPY) and the only thing that would prevent me from buying the next selloff in the geeral market is "if" it is an accelerated wave of selling. That would "likely" take the SPY to the previous target that was set as a low...which is 234.74. The fact that the VIX sold down yesterday to the 12.50...ish area leads me to believe that the compooters will be in fact targeting the SPY 234.75 area. That would "obviously" mean "panic" should break out according to your rules of what happens when a "solid" support area breaks. I doubt that happens. But keep an "I" on my SPY 234.75 area "if" SPY 240.00 breaks. :-)
Nice. I personally don't like to trade IWM because it has been chopping around for nearly 18 months in a range that tends to be too tight to make a reasonable profit. I always have some type of long position on, so at market spikes I will buy puts to hedge (small money to protect larger money). So we saw the break above the stops and I just posted a 'snapshot' update. The algos are creating a specific market psychology that requires clipping coupons, no big shorts, just nibbling at the edges. The algos will heavily defend major support levels because there is a lack of liquidity to catch a hot falling knife at the moment, better to defend where it is easiest.
That's right, the "ave Joe" is going to lose on every trade long or short becuz, unless you are in "before" the swing in the other direction begins, you will already be buying half way through the move. That's been Greg's biggest problem actually. Tis also why I have been "refraining" from the shortest of short term trades unless the odds are too good not to step up. I outlined a trade at my UVXY options trade board/bored today. That is setting up so that your $20 lotto ticket will pay you a $100 winner. I like dem odds. Go check out my spew. :-)
a couple other guys in the trading community were talking about various VIX plays today. My intention is to wait for the volatility to hit (if at all) then short the VIX, likely with puts, and long XIV at the same time
Whoa! You now get an immediate follow from me as anyone who "says" they can handle the sexy VIXens deserves to be watched. If VXX beitchslaps you just slap her back. These gals luv that kinda shit. You do that and you get laid that night...promise. :-)