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RE: Let me tell you again, HOLD YOUR STEEM! We are about to be stinky rich!
While it's good to see some buying, this is not a "reversal." In order for it to be a reversal, we'll need to see sustained buying and an uptrend back to the range between $0.25 - $0.30. We have seen these relatively small bounces throughout the downtrend. None have marked an actual reversal so far. Unless something has fundamentally changed in the markets, we will see this trend resume, most likely.
If the price can climb back up to $0.20 in the next couple of days, I might be inclined to use the "reversal" term at that point, but only if we see a corresponding rise in volume as well. Trends that are only a few hours long really aren't an indication of anything.
It was a reversal but because buy orders trumped sell orders by 5:1 it didn't continue. This reversal failed 5 hours after my post, as investors removed their buy orders. I suspect they removed their buy orders because despite the fact STEEM was reversing, sell orders kept increasing. This is due to inflation which is the real problem here. I was hoping we'd overcome it.
And yes, the fundamentals had changed and was the reason for a suspected reversal. Chainbase has been introduced, which I linked in this post.
If we want to see a real turn around in price then buys need to out weigh sells. With over 1 Million STEEM being dumped right now, that's a difficult challenge to overcome without introducing a deflationary method to slow the creation of STEEM. I was hoping yesterday that the changes announced yesterday would've made people look past this and instead hold their STEEM, realizing that there's a long term incentive here. Instead people don't know what they're doing when it comes to STEEM and sell it for a quick buck. The fact that there's less SBD in circulation now too, and more STEEM, gives people more reason to sell STEEM for a profit instead of SBD, which is supposed to be the purpose of SBD; quick returns.
Inflation is what stopped us from turning around yesterday, because the fundamentals and technical data were concise with one an other. Yet, inflation sell pressure didn't ease and people are still dumping. We need to stop the bleeding caused by sellers, which would only be possible by introducing a deflationary method. I'll be writing a post about this today, because it's a serious issue if we want to be economically viable in the coming future and want to avoid insolvency.
Right - which would make this not a reversal. When you look at the charts, you can clearly see that this happens regularly on the way down. None of these prior bumps in price were a reversal of the downtrend. A reversal doesn't occur until the downtrend reverses by crossing certain chart patterns and prices - making higher highs and lows, or lower highs and lows, depending on the previous trend. There would be momentum building to the upside in the case of Steem.
As I stated in previous posts and comments over the past week, we really don't have any reliable data to identify resistance and support, since Steem has only been trading for a short time and we had one large price spike followed by a sustained sell-off. There are a few areas where we might be able to say there is resistance, based on the small bumps on the way down, but even those wouldn't be reliable enough unless we can confirm them on the way back up during an actual reversal.
Price trend and supply fundamentals have not changed. We had a temporary spike in the price - from $0.13 to $0.17, then back down to $0.13. That was it. It was the smallest blip that we've had during the current sell-off in both price and volume. If Steem can hold its current price of just over $0.13 for a few days, or even begin rising again on higher volume, we'll have more data to look at and determine if a reversal is taking place. As of right now, no reversal has occurred. We don't want to try to catch falling knives, especially with a new and unproven system/platform and a newly traded cryptocurrency.
I hope the Steem price does reverse. But it hasn't happened yet. It didn't happen yesterday. Maybe we can watch it happen tomorrow and into next week. A few hours of buying doesn't reverse a downtrend - unless the downtrend actually stops and reverses direction. Stopping briefly and resuming doesn't qualify as such.
We also received some good news yesterday about UI features and Chainbase, but as of right now, they're still being tested. When they're fully tested and implemented, then we'll see what happens with their functionality and see if there's any impact on confidence and "investing." It sounds promising, but that's all it is right now.
Voice of reason. Upvoted.