Your free market guide: 12th to 16th Feb
To help you to earn more with TIQL we're sending you this free guide to the markets and dates to watch this week. Economic news and announcements cause financial markets to move a lot, and may provide some opportunities to trade.
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Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
USD: key events this week
This week, there are lots of red flag events for USD traders to cogitate on and plan their moves for the week.
First up are CPI and Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (14th February 1.30pm GMT). If they show love for the US economy, most analysts expect markets to rise. Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday 14th 3.30pm GMT) is less directly related to the domestic market, but it impacts USD in a number of ways. The Producer Price Index (Thursday 15th 1.30pm GMT) contracted by -0.1% last month. This will reflect data gathered before the crashes and temporary government shutdown at the end of last week so traders may not place too much weight on it. Then Building Permits (Friday 16th 1.30pm GMT) will be USD traders last planned big play before the week ends.
But, of course, there’s always Trump’s tweets and speeches to add some unnecessary turbulence to the week, and much needed laughs. Last week’s midweek shock crash led to an old irate tweet about the markets coming back to bite Trump. Back in 2015, he thought the sitting US president should be fired into the sun in a cannon if Wall Street dropped by more than 1,000 points in a day. It happened twice in one week on his watch. He went uncharacteristically quiet with no tweets for what must be a record amount of time on the Trump-feed. We’re guessing that means he won’t be heading into the sun any time soon. But with two massive crashes in a row, shouldn’t that be two canon rides then? Or would twice mean a ride there and one back? Is that why he’s still president? Has Trump been to the sun?
More importantly, this week traders want to know when the Dow and S&P 500 will turn around or if there is further to fall. They also want to know why the fall happened when the US economy looks reasonably strong at the moment. Everyone and their dog has a theory but we may never know. Jittery traders who don’t trust a good thing seems to cover it. Even Trump got it right about that.
AUD: brace for impact
The Aussie dollar has a tendency to be buffeted by other markets. The Wall Street double dipper led to a 6-week low against the dollar last week and volatility could remain across this week.
Reeling from the additional impact of the Bank of England’s interest rate news (over 1% drop against sterling), AUD could regain some strength with Employment Change news and the Unemployment Rate (Thursday 15th February 12.30am GMT).
The highlight of the week will be Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Rob Lowe speaking to the House of Representatives Economics Committee (Thursday 15th 10.30pm GMT). Committee members questions could reveal news on the Bank's view of the economy and future plans for interest rates.
GBP: an economy under pressure
Last week’s potential interest rate rise reveal from Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor, and the news that it could be larger than previously thought will probably worry large parts of the country’s debt-laden population, though markets reacted positively.
Analysts wanted someone, anyone, to do something to keep a lid on inflation and took the news well. Although others are confused. The upwards pressure doesn’t seem to be coming from the domestic market making it difficult to see how Carney’s measures are going to do anything other than fan the flames for a debt-laden cash-strapped underpaid workforce.
The Consumer Price Index (Tuesday 13th February 9.30am GMT) fell to 3.0% last month from a high of 3.1% in December. If it drops further, the arguments for a rate rise get thinner. Retail Sales (9.30am GMT Friday 16th) will help a lot of traders decide how far and fast they think the Governor is going to jump. The next chance for rates to change will be on 22nd March though many have put their money on May's Rate Statement for the next hike.
Here are the main news events to look out for this week:
Tue Feb 13
09:30:00 GMT GBP CPI y/y
Wed Feb 14
02:00:00 GMT NZD Inflation Expectations q/q
13:30:00 GMT USD Retail Sales m/m
13:30:00 GMT USD CPI m/m
13:30:00 GMT USD Core Retail Sales m/m
13:30:00 GMT USD Core CPI m/m
15:30:00 GMT USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thu Feb 15
00:30:00 GMT AUD Unemployment Rate
00:30:00 GMT AUD Employment Change
13:30:00 GMT USD PPI m/m
21:30:00 GMT NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index
22:30:00 GMT AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
Fri Feb 16
13:30:00 GMT USD Building Permits
09:30:00 GMT GBP Retail Sales m/m
Some Markets to Watch...
**USDJPY: The Yen is trading at a significant support zone at 107 - 108 after making a low of 108.03 on Friday. **
News on out Wednesday might see this pair move.
GBPUSD: Cable seems poised to continue its bull run.
The UK has a slew of economic data on the docket for Tuesday this week, most notably being CPI data for January at 09:30 GMT. A positive uptick here will only further cement the BoE on a path towards interest rates, with some market forecasts already calling for a May rate increase. The chart below shows the levels to watch as we go into the trading week.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin levels rose this past week.
Bitcoin recovered more than 48% from the multi-month lows touched at $5,896.00 last week. The long-awaited break above $8,500 failed to produce meaningful recovery as the selling interest around $9,000 resistance pushed it back.
Crude Oil: Oil prices have gained some ground today after the drop last week. The chart below shows some of the levels to watch going into the trading week. The key zone to watch is the $55 zone, which is near the half way back and has previous supply and demand nearby. We also have the equidistant swing completing into $53: should we see a deeper correction this might be an interesting level to watch.
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