You need to own 10 bitcoins to claim 1,911 lumens, or $72 at today's prices. My guess is bitcoin holders will just hold on to rather than sell, what's the point at that price? This giveaway has been know about for some time. Perhaps it's is already priced in. You're right about the similar giveaway which was carried out last year between July and October, the price was more or less static during that time. Perhaps some bitcoin holders will not even bother to claim. Things are different this time however. I'm guessing a lot more people know of Stellar now than last year. And that'll mean more people are likely to claim. I foresee a distribution resulting in a rally in price rather than a depression myself, perhaps not unlike the recent rally. The next couple of months will not be boring, that's for sure.