Dongzi Securities Big Data Research Report on Public Opinion
Dongzi Securities Big Data Research Report on Public Opinion
Release date
October 21, 2024 at 9:25 AM
The DongZi Securities Sentiment Big Data Indicator (I) — Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Bullish Composite Index
The optimism of international investors towards the overseas Chinese securities market is rapidly rising
DongZi Securities — October 21, 2024 9:30:00
Today, East Zi Securities released the “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Bullish Composite Index” at 67.2, an increase of 28.2% from the previous day. The index has rebounded to a relatively high level, clearly reflecting the rapidly rising optimism of international investors towards the overseas Chinese securities market.
Wu Dilin, a research strategist at Pepperstone, said that the recent signals from the People’s Bank of China, including the possibility of further interest rate cuts and lower reserve requirements, have injected valuable confidence into the market. These measures not only help alleviate the market’s liquidity pressure, but also indicate that monetary policy may remain relatively loose in the near future. In addition, the leaders’ speeches on technology have provided a clear policy direction for the market, becoming a key factor driving the market’s rebound. With the People’s Bank of China’s re-lending tools, these policy measures are expected to further consolidate the bullish trend.
Economists at BNP Paribas also hold a positive outlook on China’s economic prospects. They believe that the probability of China achieving its full-year growth target is now very high, but on the condition that the economy must experience a moderate rebound in the fourth quarter. Although the current economic growth rate is slower than that of the previous few quarters, the September economic data has shown initial signs of a bottom, providing strong support for future economic growth.
Bloomberg Economic Commentary pointed out that considering the strength and scope of policy responses in recent weeks, China’s economy may have already bottomed out. The government may now focus more on the implementation of policies, especially to ensure that local officials can complete this year’s budget fiscal spending targets. This will help stabilize market expectations and drive sustained economic recovery.
In summary, as the policy signals from the People’s Bank of China, the leaders’ speeches, and Read more.
Figure: Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities — Daily Long-Only Composite Index”
The Index Explained: The Dongzi Securities “Overseas China Securities — Daily Bullish Sentiment Comprehensive Index” is the world’s first index that monitors the daily bullish sentiment of the Chinese stock market from global media and institutions. The index is based on the daily comments of the world’s top media on China’s politics, economy, diplomacy, and stock market, and uses big data algorithms to derive the optimism and pessimism values for the Chinese stock market. The higher the value, the stronger the willingness to buy Chinese stocks.
Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicator (II)
[Overseas China Securities — Daily News Sentiment Index]
News sentiment in the overseas China stock market is neutral
Dongzi Securities 2024–10–18 9:30:00
Today, the “Singapore FTSE China A50-Daily News Sentiment Index” recorded -0.4, which is neutral to slightly bearish for the market. Meanwhile, the “China Hong Kong Stock-Daily News Sentiment Index” recorded 0.1, which is neutral for the market.
In China, several major state-owned banks will cut the deposit interest rate again starting from October 18th. This time, the regular deposit interest rate was cut by 25 basis points. Interest rate cuts are of course good news for the stock market.
However, it should be noted that despite the favorable factor of interest rate cuts, Chinese assets were sold overnight. Chinese A-shares fell nearly 4% and the 3x long FTSE China ETF fell more than 7%, reflecting the concerns of international investors about the Chinese market.
Based on the above analysis, we can see that although China’s domestic interest rate cut policy provides favorable support for the stock market, international investors’ concerns about the overseas China stock market still exist, which will lead to market fluctuations and uncertainty within the day. Read more.
Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 — News Sentiment Index for Singapore”
Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily News Sentiment Index”
✭Data Source: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily News Sentiment Index” uses big data technology to collect news reports from 100 global media outlets about China Hong Kong stocks every day. It evaluates the attributes and influence of all related news articles, and then calculates the daily news score through the Dongzi Securities News Sentiment Model, thereby revealing the positive or negative attributes of news information on the Hong Kong stock market.
✭Index Explanation: The higher the Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily News Sentiment Index” value, the greater the positive impact on the stock market, and vice versa. A value below -1 is considered negative, a value between -1 and 1 is neutral, and a value above 1 is considered positive.
Dongzi Securities Sentiment Big Data Indicator (III)
[Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index]
Rapid repair of pessimistic sentiment in the overseas Chinese securities market
Dongzi Securities 2024–10–21 9:30:00
Today, the “Singapore FTSE China A50-Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” is 71.5, up 57% from the previous period, and the market’s pessimistic sentiment has been completely repaired. Important “combination punch” policies have been implemented, and good news has continued to emerge, which has strongly catalyzed market sentiment and quickly boosted market confidence.
At the same time, the “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” also showed an upward trend, up 88.5%, and finally closed at 70.3, pushing market sentiment to a near peak. With the unexpectedly strong policies being implemented in succession, market confidence has been bolstered.
Although both markets saw a decline towards the end of the day, they both closed at a high level, pulling a very noticeable “big red candle”. This has completely reversed the weak trend in the middle of last week, and investors in the market seem to have been given a “shot of adrenaline”, showing great confidence in the future.
Overall, with the implementation of a series of favorable policies and the complete repair of market Read more.
Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index for Singapore”
✭Data Source: Dongzi Securities “Singapore FTSE China A50 — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” uses big data technology to collect nearly 100 articles and research reports on FTSE China A50 analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it processes the data through relevant software to extract keywords, analyze the bullish and bearish attributes of keywords, and obtain the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the FTSE A50 stock market on the same day.
✭Index Explanation: The larger the Dongzi Securities “Singapore FTSE China A50 — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” value, the higher the investment banks’ bullish sentiment towards the stock market, and vice versa. An index value below 48 indicates a bearish outlook, an index value between 48 and 52 indicates a neutral outlook, and an index value above 52 indicates a bullish outlook.
Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index”
✭Data Source: Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” uses big data technology to collect nearly 200 articles and research reports on China Hong Kong stock analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it conducts keyword extraction and analysis of the positive and negative attributes of keywords to process the data, and obtains the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the Hong Kong stock market on the same day.
✭Index Explanation: The larger the Dongzi Securities “China Hong Kong Stock Market — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index” is, the higher the institution’s bullish sentiment towards the stock market is, and vice versa. Below 48 indicates a bearish outlook, between 48 and 52 indicates a neutral outlook, and above 52 indicates a bullish outlook.
Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicator (IV)
[Overseas Chinese Securities — Pre-Market Forecast]
The overseas Chinese securities market is expected to fluctuate today
Dongzi Securities 2024–10–18 9:30:00
Today, it is expected that the FTSE China A50 Index will fluctuate today.
It is expected that the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index will fluctuate today. Read more.
Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “Predicted Trend of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore”
Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “Predicted Trend of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index”
The East Zi Securities Big Data Indicator (V) — Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Pre-Market Strategy
Profit-taking will become the dominant short-term market trend
East Zi Securities — October 18, 2024 9:30:00
The information released in yesterday’s press conference did not exceed market expectations, so the market chose to adjust after the news came out. Based on the analysis of the “Overseas Chinese Securities Three Major Public Opinion Indexes” developed by East Zi Securities, we believe that the short-term Singapore FTSE China A50 Index will rise back to its previous high, but market confidence is not large, and the current market is still mainly consolidating.
We can clearly see from the market sentiment index that the “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Long Positions Comprehensive Index” and the “Singapore FTSE China A50 — Daily Institutional Public Opinion Index” have shown signs of decline since October 3, and the sentiment index has issued an early warning of the fund flow movements in the market. We can see that the incremental funds that flowed in from the end of September to early October have undergone repeated fluctuations in recent trading days, and their attitudes have quickly shifted from optimism at the end of September to extreme optimism in early October to a relatively flat attitude in recent days. Therefore, their trading sentiment has also shifted from positive and optimistic to flat.
However, we should also see that the “Singapore FTSE China A50 — Daily News Public Opinion Index” developed by East Zi Securities has a relatively strong overall trend. This indicates that a series of incremental information has brought about a relatively wide fluctuation impact on the stock market, but it has also sent a positive signal to market participants that relevant parties expect the capital market to become active in order to reflect a more solid economic base and bring about new positive guidance for economic growth. Here, the incremental information is not only at the economic and industrial policy level, but also includes the continuous large-scale and forceful share repurchase and shareholding information of state-owned enterprises, which is conducive to changing the long-term capital expectations of the Singapore FTSE China A50. At this Read more.
East Zi Securities Big Data Indicator (VI)
[Overseas Chinese Securities — Mid-term Smart Live Trading]
Hold Position and Observe
East Zi Securities 2024–10–18 9:30:00
At present, according to East Zi Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities Three Major Public Opinion Indexes,” the market is still in an adjustment phase, and the characteristic of this phase will be increased volatility. Until the mid-term smart live trading triggers a new trading signal, choose to hold position and observe.
Currently, the policy valve has opened in China, and various departments are speeding up the implementation of policies. This will provide strong support for the current economic recovery and better support for the capital market. However, the incremental fiscal policy has released positive signals, but there is still disagreement on the actual implementation and the scale of stimulus. Under the uncertainty, short-term new incremental funds remain cautious. The lack of new fund support means limited market momentum, and in this context, the market trend becomes more complex. Read more.
Figure 1: Dongzi Securities “Long-term Smart Live Trading of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore”
Figure 2: Dongzi Securities “Long-term Smart Live Trading of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore” Performance Chart
Figure 3: Dongzi Securities “Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Midline Smart Live Trading”
Figure 4: Dongzi Securities “Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Mid-term Smart Live Trading” Performance Chart
The East Securities Mid-term Smart Live Trading is a smart trading model that guides trading operations based on East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Long-only Comprehensive Index”, East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily News Sentiment Index”, and East Securities’ “Overseas Chinese Securities — Daily Institutional Sentiment Index”, through big data weighted calculation to derive mid-term buy and sell trading signals, and then follows the signals to conduct trading operations.