New probability of impact with the moon of asteroid 2024 YR4

To begin with, in my opinion, they could have bothered to make a slightly more elaborate or illustrative illustration, this is the illustration that they published in the statement they issued on June 5, in the statement NASA informs us of the observations of the James Webb telescope of the asteroid 2024 YR4 that was famous a few months ago because there was a possibility of impact with the Earth, a small possibility but it was not negligible.

This possibility of an impact with the Earth has been ruled out for a long time, there is no possibility that this asteroid will impact the Earth, it will pass close but will not impact, but it turns out that curiously the probability of this asteroid impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 has increased, the James Webb data has improved our knowledge about the situation of the asteroid by 20%, so there is still room to refine the trajectory of the asteroid and as a result of this new data the probability of The probability of the asteroid impacting the moon has increased slightly, it was at 3.8% and has now risen to 4.3%.

It is a small probability but it cannot be ruled out, in fact it is quite high, if it were in the case of the Earth it would be worrying and some type of measure would have to be taken. I am amused by NASA's statement because it says that in the event of an impact it would not alter the lunar orbit, obviously not the moon, luckily it is very large and this asteroid is very small, it is between 40 to 90 m in diameter, it is comparable to the Statue of Liberty, but even so the impact is going to launch rocks and pieces into space.

Most will end up falling on the Moon, but some will surely end up orbiting the Earth and some may end up impacting the Earth. In any case, with an asteroid of this size, I don't think the fragments will be larger than 1 meter in diameter. In any case, it will be a spectacle worth seeing and studying, the impact of this asteroid with the moon.

A telescope would not be necessary, the asteroid is small, but it is large enough to cause an impact visible to the naked eye, if it is on the side that we see of the moon, obviously, if it is on the hemisphere that we do not see of the moon, then forget nothing, we will not see anything.

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