It all starts with a curiosity; The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4

The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in 2032 has increased quite a bit in recent days, but this is normally expected and still means that it probably won't end up hitting Earth.

The asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered at the end of last year and recently set off alarm bells because it had a 1.6% probability of colliding with the earth in less than 8 years and with each passing day new data is taken and that probability, which is currently increasing, is recalculated.

Our telescopes do not have infinite resolution, therefore we do not know the position and speed of the asteroid with absolute precision, but there is a certain uncertainty that means that when we calculate its future orbit there is also a certain uncertainty about where it will pass exactly and we can represent that uncertainty by area.

The asteroid will necessarily pass through some point in the shadowed area, the probability of it colliding with the earth being the proportion between the size of the earth and the area of ​​that shadow. As the days go by and we make more observations, the area of ​​uncertainty decreases, but as long as the earth remains within it, the proportion of the planet with respect to that area will become larger and larger until, with a bit of luck, the uncertainty is reduced so much that it no longer includes the Earth and the probability of colliding becomes zero, so for now we still have to wait.

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