At the moment you already know that there is a between 2 and 3% chance of impact, I really don't like it very much because we lack a lot of information about the asteroid, about its trajectory, and marking this impact line is still very precarious, it is something to take with a grain of salt, it is what we have with the current calculations and this line so that we have an idea in case an impact with the earth is confirmed since it would affect around 150 to 200 million people.
It is terrible, for example, it would start on the island of Hainan in China, the island has about 10 million inhabitants; in Vietnam it would affect the city of Binh with 500,000 inhabitants; in Burma it would affect the capital of Burma with almost 5 and a half million inhabitants; In India, it is crazy. India that area is very populated, it would pass over, for example, the district of Chennai with 6 and a half million inhabitants, it would pass over the city of Bangalore with 8.4 million inhabitants and also over the port city of Mangalore with 724,000 inhabitants, there is also the district of Udupi with 1,700,000 inhabitants, India is hyper populated.
In that area, especially in Africa, it would affect the capital of Ethiopia Addis Ababa with almost 5 and a half million inhabitants; In Cameroon, the capital Yaoundé with 440,000 inhabitants and the city of Doala with 3,800,000 inhabitants would be affected; In South America, it takes over the rocket base of the European space agency in French Guiana, crossing the south of Venezuela, and in Colombia it would affect Bogotá with almost 8 million inhabitants and Medellín, which also falls within that line with 4 million inhabitants.
We have options, remember that thanks to NASA's Dart mission and another one that China is developing that will be launched in I think in 2030 if I'm not mistaken, NASA's Dar mission demonstrated that with a single impact an asteroid could be deflected, an asteroid that was larger than this one was the Dimorphos asteroid, an asteroid that is a mini of another larger asteroid, that Dimorphos asteroid that was deflected with the impact of the Dar mission was 160 meters wide. diameter, this is between 40 to 90 meters so we can divert it.
You don't have to intercept it when it is close to the Earth, you have to intercept it to divert it when it is as far away as possible, because even with a push with a small push of a few meters of deviation in its trajectory that can mean thousands of kilometers on a path of millions of kilometers, so the further away it hits the better and if you have three options then the better, but Even if it fails, if that operation doesn't work, you can determine precisely where it is going to impact, this line would be much more fixed and you could say the place the affected area even weeks in advance and with this we could evacuate the area, it would be the lesser evil.
The best option would be the diversion operation, which would also not be a cosmic or colossal expense operation. The impact of the Dart mission cost about 324 million dollars. It is a lot of money, but it is not a huge amount. Nations spend money on other things. planetary coordination for this type of things, what do you think?
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