The Economic Consequences of the Imposed Lockdown. Part 1

The good and the Bad

According to Data collected by the National Bureau of Economic Research. (NBER) Dating back to the 14th century, studying the last 15 major pandemics. Where 100,000 people or more died.

In addition, they included major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll.
Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed.

The dated suggests that wars have the complete opposite effect..... Consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics.

Real wages become somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings. (Fear of job loss/uncertainty/Mass unemployment)

Tune in to part 2 soon