The increasing U.S. Delinquency Rate could be one of the reasons that the next 3rd altseason is delayed.
I've been thinking about why Total 2 Marketcap movement is still weaker than BTC(Bitcoin) price movement. So, I thought it could be related to the increasing U.S. Delinquency Rate.
The increasing Delinquency Rate means that people are running out of cash. So, they can't pay back loans. Additionally, they can't speculate in altcoins.
On the other hand, decreasing Delinquency Rate means that they're capable of paying back loans, and they have extra cash. So, they can do speculative trading of altcoins at any time.
As you know, there have been 2 altseasons so far. During the 1st and 2nd altseasons, the Delinquency Rates decreased, which means people could afford to invest altcoins.
How about this cycle? Unfortunately, the U.S. Delinquency Rate has been increasing for the last few years.
The major reason could be that people have been suffering tough time due to the high interest rates. So, they don't have extra money now. So, they can't invest altcoins compared to BTC with respect to the uncertainty and regulations.
So, as long as the U.S Delinquency Rate is increasing, the next 3rd altseason would be continuously delayed. I still believe this season is not over.
If the Fed starts buying corporate bonds and rate cuts more, the U.S. Delinquency Rate would settle down! And then, someone who endures this tough time will be rewarded!