Sometimes, I visited Cointelegraph, and read articles.

in H4LAB Research15 days ago (edited)

I can't upload images due to an unknow error.


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Source: Cointelegraph

Today, I suddenly wondered what was going on in the past. So, I searched Altseason, and analyzed the pattern.

This is an October 2020 article. It said that "Don't expect another 2017-style altseason.".

Back then and now, there are still people that say things like that. Few months ago, when BTC( Bitcoin) dominance started soaring again, I saw those kind of people.

For reference, when it was in the altseason 1.0, ERC-20 tokens skyrocketed hundreds times.

I saw a person who actually cashed out in the altseason 1.0.


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Source: Cointelegraph

This is a January 2021 article.

Even before Jan 2021, BTC dominance had already started falling, and since February 2021, it collapsed further, and it triggered the altseason 2.0.

At that time, DOGE price was around $0.01. Back then, some retail investors said that I sold all of DOGE in $0.01, and It was good deal .

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Source: Upbit exchange

Since the altseason 2.0 started in February 2020, DOGE soared to approximately $1. It was almost a 200× profit!

Some retail investors who actually exited altseasons are people who held their assets for a long time.


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Source: Cointelegraph

This is a January 2021 article. This month is a month that ETH surpassed Jan 2018 ATH. We were about to encounter the altseason 2.0.

Raoul Pal said that After Ethereum, 'next stop will be higher risk alts.'.

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Source: @RaoulGMI on X

I tried to look for who is, he looks like writing articles with a macroeconomic view, and from Goldman Sachs.

4 days ago, when it comes to Crypto Total 3 Marketcap(Excluding BTC & ETH marketcaps), he said that 'The Big game is yet to be played.'.

Compared to back then, 4 years and 8 months ago, I feel the vibe is almost same.


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Source: Cointelegraph

4-1. 이후 21년 2월부터 2차 알트시즌이 시작되며, 성과가 나오기 시작하는 알트들이 등장했습니다.

This is a March 2021 article. 칠리즈(CHZ)가 1,600% 폭등했었는데, 그 당시 커뮤니티에서 칠리즈 존버로 졸업하신 분이 기억나네요.

4-2. 이번 시즌도 다를 바 없을 거라 생각합니다.

거 2배 올랐다고 전량 매수•매도, 사팔사팔, 앙 숏 개꿀띠, 꺼어어어억 하다가

남들 졸업할 때, 유급하여 또 4년 재입학하겠죠.


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Source: Cointelegraph

  1. 이후 21년 12월부터 알트 시즌 종료가 시작되었고,

22년 하반기, Inflation으로 인해 미 Fed의 급격한 금리 인상으로 코인, 주식, 부동산, 채권 등 정말 힘든 시기였죠.

22년 말에 매일 울었던 기억이 납니다.. 여튼 22년 8월부터 23년 4월까지 Altseason 기사 한 줄도 안 나왔네요.


  1. 단타에 재능이 있다면, 하셔도 되지만,

일반인들은 통계적으로 평균에 수렴하게에, 작은 이익에 신경쓰지 않고, 가격 변동성을 견디며, 거미줄처럼 분할매도한다면(저는 10개 이상, TP1, TP2, .. TP 11..)

분명 3차 알트시즌에서 수석 졸업하리라 의심치 않습니다

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@happycapital, this is a fantastic trip down memory lane! I love how you've woven together past articles and personal experiences to analyze the Altseason patterns. The contrasting viewpoints from 2020 and the explosive growth of DOGE in 2021 really highlight the unpredictable nature of crypto. It's a great reminder that opportunities always exist, even when things look bleak.

Your point about "졸업하는 개미들" (graduating ants) and the importance of holding through volatility is so crucial! And the mention of Raoul Pal adds a layer of insightful perspective.

I'm especially intrigued by your feeling that the current situation mirrors 2017. What specific indicators are you watching that make you feel this way? Also, what are some alts you're keeping a close eye on for this potential 3rd Altseason? Thanks for sharing your wisdom!