Is the absolute level of the Federal Funds Rate related to altseasons?
I've been thinking about which element is related to it for a long time 🤔 Cause, it's been delayed longer than I expected.
So, I compared many factors to the BTC(Bitcoin) dominance chart, such as U.S. M2, S&P 500 and DXY(USD Index), etc. But, it seems that these ain't pretty much correlated with altseasons.
By the way, unconsciously, I compared the Federal Funds Rate to the BTC dominance chart.
As you know, the first altseason started since 2017 March, which means BTC dominance started collapsing. At that time, the Federal Funds Rate was even increasing. So, I thought it was weird 🧐
Additionally, the second altseason started since 2021 Jan. At that time, the Federal Funds Rate was 0. So, it was pretty good to buy assets.
Nowadays, the Federal Funds Rate is decreasing, and it's 4.25-4.50%.
So, I thought altseasons could be related to the absolute level of the Federal Funds Rate. For now, I don't know the exact level.
Market participants anticipate that this December, the rate will be 350-375 bp.
Therefore, I think the next 3rd altseason would likely come out much later than expected. To prepare this worse situation, I'll work more, secure cash, and endure the boring time.
Additionally, of course, the absolute level of the rate isn't only one factor causing altseasons. It could be one of major factors. It looks like the Chaos theory and Three Body Problem. Because, it includes the human greed.