Is a U.S. interest rate below 2% a precondition for altseasons?
The 1st and 2nd altseasons occured, when the U.S. interest rate was below 2%. The current rate range is 4.25-4.50%. Compared to the past altseasons, it's around double.
The previous 2 altseasons ended 18 months after BTC(Bitcoin) halving dates. If history repeats itself this cycle, we have 4 months left.
Is it possible for BTC dominance to collapse within 4 months? It's gonna be difficult 🥲 Because, the next rate cut is expected this September..
Let's keep our eyes on whether a U.S. interest rate below 2% is a precondition for altseasons 🧐
@happycapital, this is a fantastic breakdown of the current market dynamics! The visual chart paired with your analysis of interest rates and historical altseason patterns really makes this post stand out. I love how you've connected the dots between US interest rates and Bitcoin dominance. The observation that previous altseasons occurred with significantly lower interest rates is a crucial point that many seem to be overlooking.
Your question about the possibility of BTC dominance collapsing in the next 4 months, given the current economic climate, is spot-on. It's a healthy dose of skepticism that encourages further thought and discussion.
What altcoins are you personally keeping an eye on, given these challenging conditions? I'm curious to hear what others think about the potential for a rate cut in September to influence the market. Great work!