"Is a Summer Gold Surge on the Horizon?
After the April breakout upwards, the gold market has taken a pause and has been consolidating between the levels of $2430 and $2280 for the past 2.5 months. However, as July approaches, more signals are indicating that gold is likely to break the $2430 level and resume its upward trend.
Looking at the history of the gold market, one can notice an interesting feature: this market tends to rise in mid-summer for over 40 years. Of course, this seasonal price pattern is not perfect, and I wouldn't rely solely on it if there weren't other signals confirming the likely increase.
One of the most important signals I rely on is that the largest players in this market, whom the US government calls operators, have been increasing their long positions throughout all the downward fluctuations in this market over the past 4 weeks, which means something. An interesting fact is that these super players often act at moments when a seasonal price fluctuation is expected in the market, and this summer seems to be no exception. In addition to these signals, there are also technical signals in the form of bullish divergences on the daily chart, which add another plus in favor of a likely increase.
As for the news background, the main rumor fueling gold's rise right now is that Israel is preparing for a possible confrontation with the Lebanese Hezbollah. All these signals, factors, and news together give me reason to believe that the gold market is likely to reach the price range of $2450 - $2520 in July - August of this year.
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