Global Trade and Economic Outlook

Global trade expanded in the first half of 2025, but faces "mounting headwinds" in the second half due to persistent policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and signs of slowing global growth.

Developed economies, particularly the US and EU, outpaced developing countries in trade in Q1 2025.

Digital markets are becoming increasingly concentrated, with a few major tech companies dominating. This is leading to calls for stronger, more coordinated enforcement of competition law globally.

Global economic growth is generally slowing, with projections for 2025 and beyond downgraded for most regions due to rising trade barriers and heightened policy uncertainty.

Indonesia's economy, however, has remained stable in Q2 2025 despite global turmoil, benefiting from positive consumption, purchasing power, and successful negotiations with the US on import tariffs.

The IMF's 2025 External Sector Report highlights widening global current account imbalances, driven largely by China, the United States, and the euro area, which could generate negative cross-border spillovers.

There are ongoing discussions about potential protectionist economic approaches by the US, including proposed tariffs, which could disrupt global trade patterns and impact regions like the EU, Mexico, and Canada.