Home News Environment Analysis 14 August 2018 Why forecasting how hot it will be in 2022 is mostly a gimmick

Expect a lot more heat in coming years. The world will warm at an even faster rate from 2018 to 2022 than the underlying global warming trend, according to a forecasting method so simple it can run on a laptop.

We are fairly good at predicting the weather for the next few days. Long-term forecasts of the climate are also already proving reliable. Yet what would be really useful would be detailed forecasts for the months and years ahead.