Fork price as a complex corporate action event

Complex corporate action fork event

For the sake of simplicity I will assume both BITCOIN and Bitcoin Cash are securities and are not currencies and I will explain further why they are not but just go with it and the recent SEC decision OK.

First an event gets announced then normally you would go off of record or effective date depending on the country for ownership purposes. We are global with CRYPTO so I will coin the new term Record block date.

Next is it mandatory or voluntary. Its definitely mandatory but it also has a voluntary aspect. Which is why its complex. You can let an exchange hold your wallet that you know will give you nothing in BCC or a known exchange that will automatically reinvest your BCC into BTC. This is like a DRIP (Dvds being reinvested) on a cash dividend but its not cash. You could even get VIABTC to give you your BCC faster and at a "better rate" I Dont think its an exit scam but I still dont trust them this faster processing idea screws up pricing concepts.

Then you have the option to hold yourself and automatically receive free money as everyone says. Well its not free and its not money. Hold your keys hold your bitcoin dont hold your keys well then your just a nice person to trust people aren't you.

Next lets analyse the type of event. So if BCC was cash maybe this would be a cash DVD but its not. Its not a stock split because its not changing affecting the outstanding shares of 1 individual entity. Its creating two development teams Segwit vs Big Blocks. So I refer this as a SPINOFF event becoming two securities but in theory it could have been 1 security and cash. Also id like to note that the parent Bitcoin is different from the spunoff segwit bitcoin. Notice how i dont mention terms like protocol upgrade or replacement.

Price wise a cash dvd would have the same idea of price change by dropping BTC price by the expected value of BCC on Aug 1st. Stock splits and reverse stock splits dont affect the total mkt value so again no good. Spinoffs do though and then investors have a choice of what to do with their portfolio and this is the real affect for the price. We see most people saying dump BCC but we also see some people remembering Barry's profits from the ETC fork.

I predicted since we know the fork is coming and we can expect an increase but if it was unknown it would have created a shit ton of FUD. The increase would be expected Sunday and Monday but it is starting early due to wallet services being stopped on exchanges.

Some issues with price changes. Timing of available BCC is my biggest concern having VIABTC offering you the ability to trade it first is insane. Let alone having a it trade already as a speculative future price is very abnormal. Thwre is no trade escrow 144a or Reg S rules... Yet.
A majority of people looking to sell BCC might lead to thin buy orders and crash the price. People are going to place mkt sells and not look back.

Best exchanges to use will be Bittrex and Kraken as they will support the split and trading of BCC.

My advice is to sit back watch the action with some popcorn then make smart choices based on what the charts are telling you. Have a happy and safe fork!