QCP Capital: The options market is positioning for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, while factors such as the weakness of altcoins may suppress upward momentum.

According to Deep Tide TechFlow, on February 18, QCP Capital's latest analysis pointed out that the term structure of the options market has shown significant distortion around the March expiration date, particularly in Ethereum options. This may reflect the market's positioning for the upcoming Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing phase and expected to launch in early April.

Looking back at past upgrades, the merger upgrade in September 2022 followed the typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern—$ETH rose over 100% from the June lows, then experienced a pullback after the upgrade. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which enabled staking withdrawal functionality, faced pessimism due to market concerns about oversupply. However, once the market realized the sell-off pressure did not materialize as expected, $ETH surged 30% in the following months.

As expectations for the upgrade heat up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event, with options volatility skewed towards calls after March 28—this may lay the groundwork for the next thematic positioning in the crypto market following the Trump tariff incident.

One suppressing factor is the general weakness in the altcoin market—LIBRA's collapse, SOL and $ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market cap share approaching historical highs. Apart from market catalysts, altcoins may need to achieve substantial progress in real-world applications and network development for a sustained recovery, rather than merely relying on speculative capital flows.