Ethereum hardfork: Getting hidden numbers from price

I think every trader has heard at least once that the best trading strategy is to follow smart money. Some traders think that it is practically impossible to separate smart money from all money, but most think opposite. There are many attempts to find smart money actions or strategies in price moves or in additional information and actually sometimes it's not so difficult (IMHO of course), because they are very logical and realistic.

Right now we can count an approximate probability of Ethereum hard fork success by smart money opinion.
So let's start. Some prerequisites.

Initially The DAO split was assumed to return proportional value of ETH (~1ETH per 100 DAO). And initially the price of DAOETH pair was slightly less that 0.01 (0.0097) as some some investors didn't want to wait for split and wanted to return their ETH immediately accepting a small loss.

After The DAO attack, the ETH sum decreased significantly and the price stopped at ~0.007 after a huge drop. That price was quite logical, because 70% is the approximate number of ETH left comparing to the initial sum.

Right now the price is about 0.0096.

---

Lets assume that the probability of hard fork failure is already accounted in the price (actually it is)
Then:
price = P(f)price(f) + (1 -P(f))price(s)
where:
P(f) - probability of failure
price(f) - price of The DAO in case of failure. I think it is gonna be equal to the price after The DAO attack (0.007)
price(s) - price of The DAO in case of total hard fork success. It's gonna be ~0.0102-0.0103 if I counted correctly. Actually it should be less, because of investors that want their ETH immediately, but let's count the most pessimistic case.

Then:
P(f) = (price(s) - price)/(price(s) - price(f))
P(f)=(0.0103 - 0.0096)/(0.0103 - 0.007) = 21%

Thus the probability of total success of Ethereum hard fork is at least 79% as smart money think
Again, sorry for my English and thank you so much for reading this post to the end.
Good luck and profits!

#ethereum #hardfork #thedao #smartmoney #trading