Recession probabilities remain low.

The probability we were in a recession in November was only 0.82%. October's probability got revised down to 0.88%. So at least according to this model our current likelihood of being in a recession is quite low.

This model has a fairly decent track record. Generally speaking after three months of a probability of 80+% a recession has started. It doesn't really have a high false positive rate once the probability gets above ~10%. We haven't gotten close to that at any point in the last year.