Dear @culgin

Interesting read. Upvoted already,

It's a great idea to break your post into parts. It surely will make it easier to go through.

I've seen The Big Short already and I found it so hillarious that they presented those few people (predicting property market crash) as a very unique and rare. I strongly believe that there were thousands of investors who knew exactly what to expect and the only ones surprissed to see crash coming were regular and final consumers.

In my opinion this movie is trying to show bankers and financial advisors as kind of "innocent". Not knowing what's about to happen. Which I do not believe at all. Anyway that was still interesting show to watch.

But to the turkey farmer, this is something that is expected. Hence, black swan event is also about perspective.

I quite like this example :)

Escalation of trade war
Good point. That's currently the biggest threat I see.
However we all keep saying that it's a trade war, however it's slowly looking more like something much bigger: currency war. And this surely may push China into heavy recession, since their economy had been build on fake growth (building ghost towns left and right, just to boost their GDP).

Again thanks for solid post and interesting read.
Yours, Piotr