Dogecoin Seeks a Bottom: Is the Downtrend Over?

The Meme Cryptocurrency Suffers Its Worst Bearish Streak in Months Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing contradictory signals suggesting the possible formation of a market bottom after its recent 6.62% drop to $0.1680. While global macroeconomic pressure continues to affect risk assets, several technical indicators suggest that the meme cryptocurrency could be exhausting its bearish momentum, especially if it manages to hold the critical support at $0.15.

The Dogecoin chart is engaged in a crucial technical battle at the $0.15 level, a support that has proven historically significant in recent weeks. / TradingView

The global macroeconomic context is exerting unprecedented pressure on risk assets like Dogecoin. The implementation of a new aggressive tariff policy by the Trump administration, coupled with persistent inflation data in the United States—with the Core PCE index registering a monthly increase of 0.4%—created an adverse scenario for cryptocurrencies. This economic outlook is forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain its restrictive monetary policy. This dampens expectations of interest rate cuts, which traditionally benefit speculative assets.

Reflecting this situation, capital flows are showing a worrying trend: in the last 24 hours alone, a net outflow of $24.92 million was recorded from the Dogecoin spot market, according to data from Coinglass.

The Decisive Battle at $0.15

The Dogecoin chart is engaged in a crucial technical battle at the $0.15 level, a support that has proven historically significant in recent weeks. According to data from Binance, this threshold has held off a bearish attempt with high volume, showing remarkable resilience despite the complex macroeconomic scenario.

Technical indicators reveal a scenario of potential opportunities: while the price remains significantly below its key moving averages ($0.2106 on the 50-EMA and $0.2388 on the 200-EMA), the decline in trading volume—currently at 835.5 million DOGE versus a monthly average of 1.04 billion—suggests a possible exhaustion of selling pressure.

"The market is showing classic signs of bottoming," technical analysts explain. "The consistent defense of $0.15, combined with the reduction in volume on dips and the collapse in futures open interest (-12.38%), suggest that sellers may be losing steam."

However, traders remain cautious. The resistance at $0.20, unsuccessfully tested last week, remains a key obstacle to confirming a trend reversal. Analysts agree that only a sustained close above this level, accompanied by significant volume, could signal a more bullish scenario.

Meanwhile, the Bull Bear Power indicator, currently reading -0.0727, continues to reflect bearish dominance, albeit with less intensity than in previous weeks. This technical reading suggests that, while the market maintains a selling bias, the strength of the bearish momentum could be weakening.

The next decisive test will come if the price retests support at $0.15. A successful defense of this level, especially with a notable increase in volume, could confirm the formation of a technical bottom. Conversely, a convincing breakout would open the door to new lows in the $0.12 area.

Likely Scenarios

Bearish (60%)
Condition: Breakout of $0.15 with high volume.
Target: $0.12 − $0.10

Neutral (30%)
Condition: Range $0.15 − $0.20.
Catalyst: Waiting for key economic data.

Bullish (10%)
Condition: Rebound at $0.15 with volume above 1.5B DOGE.
Target: Retest at $0.20.

Capital Outflows: The Shadow Haunting Dogecoin

Capital flows paint a worrying picture for doge. According to the latest data from Coinglass, the DOGE spot market recorded a net outflow of $24.92 million in the last 24 hours, marking the third consecutive day of negative capital movements. This financial hemorrhage is not an isolated event: open interest in futures contracted 12.38%, reaching $1.63 billion, its lowest level in the last three days.

Analysts consulted agree that these figures reveal an alarming pattern. "When we see sustained capital outflows combined with a reduction in futures positions, we're typically seeing signs of institutional distrust." "The big players are showing caution, and this often precedes prolonged moves in the same direction."

However, some traders see this situation as a potential "capitulation" scenario, a phase that often precedes technical rebounds. "Large capital outflows may indicate that weaker sellers have already exited their positions," notes one market analyst. "If support at $0.15 holds, we could be looking at an opportunity."Interesting buying power."

Disclaimer: This content does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile assets; please conduct your own research before investing.