YouTube is Dying and I've Got the Data to Prove It. | Q1 '18 Streaming Platform Report
I've been live streaming for about a year now and while cries of "YouTube is Dead" have been a common sight, none have really backed up that claim with anything but personal opinions and stories. Today I'll show you a few reasons why YouTube is dying, all backed up with data.
Press F to pay respects to YouTube
Additionally, this is the first of a series of streaming platform reports I'll be doing. At the moment, I plan for these to be a quarterly affair, but if you guys end up really liking it I'll bump that up to monthly or even weekly!
Creators are moving elsewhere
Between Q4 of 2017 and Q1 of 2018, the number of live streamers grew on every platform. Well, every platform except YouTube where the number of streamers dropped by 30%. For comparison sake, here are the percentages of growth for other popular live streaming platforms:
- Twitch saw 33% increase in streamers
- Mixer saw a HUGE 282% increase in streamers
- Periscope saw a significant 126% increase in streamers
- And Facebook saw a 36% Increase in streamers
In an industry where average growth is 90%, YouTube posted a 30% decline. That's huge. It's a sign that YouTube has lost its appeal for content creators, and I think many of us know why. There's been a host of issues which have plagued creators including:
- Decreasing revenue from ads
- Constant demonetization issues
- Increased partner requirements
- Decreasing views and engagement on videos
- And more
In general, YouTube has done a lot this year that's harmed creators both big and small. Now we're beginning to see the effect of those actions.
It's not just the creators who are tired of YouTube's actions
Perhaps one of the most surprising things to me was the decrease in viewers. YouTube has always been a giant and thus commanded tons of viewers, but even they are fed up with YouTube's actions during the last year.
Again, we see a similar trend, viewers grow on every platform except YouTube. Here are the percent changes so you can compare:
- Twitch viewers are up 21%
- Facebook viewers are up 103%
- Periscope viewers are up 18%
- Mixer viewers are up 90%
- and YouTube viewers are down 11%
While not quite as severe as the drop in creators, it still shows a drop when the average growth in the industry is 44%. If YouTube leadership wasn't concerned about the drop in creators they will be about viewers.
For Creators: How to make use of this information
There are a few key takeaways from this info for live streamers and other content creators:
- YouTube is hurting, the drop in viewers and creators could be indications of the platforms slow death. But, there is still time for the team behind YouTube to make changes and woo content creators and viewers back.
- Smaller Live Streaming Platforms are seeing a large amount of growth, and are definitely worth checking out.
- Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Twitch may be doing well now, but it could go the way of YouTube a few years down the line!
Now I could just stop here, but there's a lot of really interesting data in these graphs and I want to explore that more.
Based on the above info, which platform has the best ratio of viewers to streamers?
One way to assess what games are good for streaming is to analyze the ratio of streamers to viewers. Sites like twitchstrike.com are great for this, but I've never seen an analysis of streamer to viewer ratio for platforms. So let's do that!
After some quick maffs:
- Twitch's viewer to streamer ratio is 26.4 to 1.
- YouTube's viewer to streamer ratio is 44.4 to 1.
- Mixer's viewer to streamer ratio is 1.5 to 1.
- Periscope's viewer to streamer ratio is 27 to 1.
- Facebook's viewer to streamer ratio is 16.1 to 1.
The only surprising thing for me with the above info is Facebook's viewer to streamer ratio. It's been my and several others who I know's experience that Facebook streams rack up hundreds of views a night, which certainly doesn't speak to the 16.1 to 1 viewer ratio there.
Take my stream last night for example. I streamed to Facebook, YouTube, Twitch, and DLive and got:
- 686 views on facebook
- 36 views on YouTube
- 19 views on DLive
- and 10 views on Twitch
If YouTube has such a higher ratio of viewers to streamers why did my Facebook stream blow it out of the water?
Differing systems for stream distribution
One of the biggest differences in these platforms is the way viewers discover your content. On Twitch, streams are organized by games, and within those game categories, by viewers. Streams with the highest viewers start first while streams with fewer viewers are pushed towards the bottom. This creates a system where the top 5% of streams own 65% of viewers. (This data is based on data provided by twitchstrike.com.)
On YouTube, videos are discovered through a combination of browse page recommendations and search. I don't have more than my own data to back up this claim, but I believe that if you are not partnered/monetizing your videos, you won't be placed on browse page. Simply put, I believe that YouTube only promotes videos which are can generate ad revenue. Which, makes sense since that's how they generate revenue.
On DLive, videos aren't sorted into subcategories based on games like they are on Twitch, however they are sorted by views resulting in a similar scenario where the top streams will own most viewers.
The interesting one however is Facebook. Obviously, something drastically different must be occurring to deliver such stellar results! And luckily for me, my viewers on Facebook let me know what happened. Facebook sends notifications to people who like/follow the game you're streaming when you go live. I don't know exactly how it works, but it looks like Facebook is trying to grow their live streaming big time and are sending push notifications to do so. This means that streaming to Facebook could see you tapping into a huge audience even if you're a small streamer.
Lastly, let's talk revenue
Another important factor to consider when looking at streaming platforms is revenue generation. Overall, tipping is up 33% and a total of $34.7M was sent to streamers in Q1 2018. Additionally, the number of monetized channels are on the rise:
- Channels earning more than $1 are up 37% from 106K to 146K.
- Channels earning more than $10 are up 33% from 66K to 88K.
- Channels earning more than $100 are up 29% from 24K to 31K.
- and Channels earning more than $1000 are up 50% form 4K to 6K.
This data is great and all, but if you're looking for money which platform is best right now?
Best Platform for Revenue Generation
If you're a small or medium sized streamer, DLive is hands down the best platform for generating revenue from your streams. More money can be made from other platforms if you have a large, well established audience, but the majority of streamers will find that DLive is a quick way to begin monetizing live streaming!
I for one made around $600 USD streaming to DLive in Q1 2018 while earning only $20 from all other platforms (in the form of a tip from a viewer).
Conclusion
So, let's summarize this:
- YouTube is seeing a significant decrease in viewers and streamers at a time when every other platform is experiencing growth
- But, even with this drop - it still has the best viewer to streamer ratio. Periscope and Twitch come in at second and third respectively.
- In terms of organic reach and content discovery, Facebook is best right now thanks to their notifications sent out when a streamer goes live.
- In terms of revenue generation, DLive is one of the best ways for small to medium sized streamers to monetize.
If you're a content creator and this helped you, let me know in the comments below. Depending on the reception, I'll make this a monthly or even weekly report. Additionally, let me know what other data and analysis you'd like to see here and I'll do my best to incorporate it in the next report.
Oh, also, here're the sources I used for this report:
- Data collected from my own streams on YouTube, Facebook, DLive, and Twitch.
- Data and graphs from the Streamlabs Blog.
- And data from twitchstrike.com.
One quarter is not enough to tell
Fair point, but the fact that YouTube is in decline while the entire industry is growing is a major indication of bad times ahead for the platform. I'll be following up on the data on a monthly basis, so we'll see over time, but this combined with the sentiment by many in industry leads me to believe this is the beginning of the end for YouTube.
That is unless they make some major changes or Twitch screws up massively, both of which are certainly possibilities!
this is great job done by him ............................
thanks!
Audience-wise, Youtube wins. Revenue-wise, the Dlive/Steemit win. I think one of the best things to do is what @jerrybanfield has done for few years. Promote videos on Youtube and bring them on something like @dlive or streemit . However, sooner or later it will become known to everyone because of sustainable payout from Steemit. Great for bringing awareness @capnsostre
Agreed - it's just plain lazy to not be uploading to multiple platforms at once!
save the youtube :/
I agree, I don't want to see it die, but at the same time - they aren't making the right choices and it's showing in their numbers.
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Yup! I realized that after - I wish I had read your post to find out before hand, but oh well.
I did the same mistake once, and someone explained it to me, so I'm just giving back, so to say.
yup! Definitely needs to be more shared. the whole system has several quirks with SBD being above the $1 peg.
In summury I completely disagree with the title.
You cannot predict the whole future based on just some statistics from a quarter.
Not to forget that Google is still giant of the internet and youtube is its own product.
On the other hand, you are talking only about live streams while youtube serves many different purposes.
The title may be a little dramatic (to help with views), but I think that this statistics when combined with overall sentiment by many in industry offer a really solid basis for a declining youtube. You have to remember that while YouTube may have only lost 30% of it's creators this quarter, that's not the whole story.
Other platforms are gaining on average 90%, putting youtube's performance a whopping 120% lower than industry average right now. Even if it's just one quarter of data, that is a big deal. This type of performance isn't going to be remedied next quarter, and I expect similar numbers unless YouTube makes some major changes (which is always a possibility).
Additionally, I'm a content marketer and for years now the entire industry has agreed that live content is the future of video consumption. This makes data from live streaming a very viable source for predicting the future. In time, live streaming will overtake pre-recorded content as the primary form of video consumption and creation, and the platforms that cater to live content best will be the future hubs of video consumption.
If YouTube loses the fight it will always be second to Twitch or whoever else claims the live content crown.
The world isn't only America.
Please link to that post. I don't know what number they are pulling, but that'd make them bigger than facebook, which I don't think is the case. It's likely that this number is the total log ins, not unique log ins. So not 1.8 billion accounts, but maybe 300 million logging in 6 times a month or something of that sort.
I think its unique, and I also believe Facebook has over 2 billion monthly active users which still make it number one.
Here's the source of my screenshot https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/3/17317274/youtube-1-8-billion-logged-in-monthly-users-brandcast-2018
Please let me know if I missed or misunderstood something here.
interesting - yeah, that puts them very close to facebook.
Fantastic well written write up. I got lost in some parts, but your conclusion brought everything back together. It doesn't surprise me that YouTube is losing users due to lower ad revenues, some of my favorite Youtubers talk about how much the ad revenue has been sucking lately. I hope users leave Twitch for Steem, DTube, and Dlive. When do you think that tipping point will be? It could happen so fast over the course of a few months. I noticed recently one of my favorite Youtubers, the hodge twins joined Steemit. I like the view to stream stats you posted. I would be interested to regularly here these statistic updates! I bet you could correlate a decrease in YouTube creation with an increase in Steem Price!
Ah! That's an interesting one, I'll definitely include steem price data in the next one to see if it correlates to any industry metrics!
Honestly, I don't think that tipping point will come soon. I think DLive and DTube are still in the very early stages of adoption. It would take them years to displace Twitch and YouTube, unless something major happens. Even still, it'll likely be a slow and gradual change.
I feel like I've just came out of a cave. I only ever watch youtube videos. And I know facebook exists but lol.. Twitch, Mixer & pericsope are all new to me. Thanks for sharing. I learn something new today
Haha, no problem. Mixer is microsoft's live streaming platform, it's more adopted on Xbox where it's native, but the PC numbers (what was used in this article, Xbox statistics are unavailable) are not too shabby!
Periscope is Twitters platform and it caters more to IRL streams.
Twitch is currently owned by Amazon and is the current holder of the live streaming crown, definitely recommend checking it out if you enjoy live content.
It's fun playing around with these numbers and theories. :-)
Like others already said, the time frame is too small though and many other factors need to be considered. For example, how active are you on each platform. Do you have the same amount of followers on each?
I'm also happy to see that other people are streaming to more than one platform. What method do you use, @capnsostre? Is it similar to the one I describe in my tutorial?
I use restream itself and just pay using earnings from here on DLive.
I have 26 followers on facebook, 73 on Twitch, 200 and something here, and 934 or something like that on YouTube. So, if anything YouTube should be my best performing platform, but it's performance is underwhelming.
I used to get 400-500 views a night from YouTube, but now I only get 40-50. I actually spend the most time here on DLive if we're referring to activity as commenting and liking other creators stuff, but the trouble is that DLive, while great for revenue, is pretty much all creators and no viewers at this point.
So I'm earning some $250 a month, but there aren't any regulars in DLive chat where as I have regulars on every other platform.
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Thanks for the resteem then! :D
I woundn't say dying. It is rather a small change. YT is doing good.
It may look small, but when you consider the fact that YouTube is the only platform to post a decline, it is huge! As I mentioned in the post, the average growth for these other platforms is something like 90%, but YouTube is in a 30% decline. That puts them 120% behind industry performance.
Plus if they keep losing 30% of content creators each quarter they will quickly die! It may seem small at first glance, but it really is quite an issue. I'm sure YouTube leadership is concerned right now.
Really, You Tube deserves it. They have mixed politics with entertainment, demonetizing conservatives channels like Mark Dice's, Diamond and Silk's, etc. Even "neutral" ones like Tim Pool's. I hope they change their way before is too late.
I think the political issues are really not the biggest factor in the decline. Even though many like to complain about it, if we're being honest it's been that way for years. The biggest factor in the decline is likely the lack of ability for small channels to monetize and the decreasing income for medium and large channels.