Crypto Currency Metrics

MV/RV market value/ realized value
market value = total coins x coin price
realized value = total coins x aquisition price

MV/RV = 2 means if every coin holder now liquidate will get 2x profit
MV/RV between 0 to 1 means if liquidate will loss

higher means potential profit increases
Use as a metric to judge over/under value

Issues:
But this metric doens't take into accound of stale coins (private keys/graveyard add)

Solution
a. How to adjust for this is to look at historical MV/RV value???
b. change computation by only taking into account of recently transacted coins (couple of years) by using time bound MV/RV metrics e.g. mvrv_usd_365d. By comparing time bounded MV/RV values, can clariy long term vs short term holder's judgement of over/under value

Video
Based on historical data to gauge what is high what is low
30 days over 2 1/2 year
MV/RV >+20% profit taking soon
MV/RV 0.10

Covid time ppl sold btc

develop model, eliminate hindsight bias

1.8 std dev of mean
Why use median value?

predictive model 3 types 30d, 180d and 365d
Based on video, 30d is better compared to 180d

Etherium > 25% ov
Etherium < - 15% uv

different coin different level support/resistance
Check for outlier (covid)

30days short term holder good indicator
For long term market cycle, holders becomes more risk off over each cycle, lower expectation